Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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858 FXUS64 KOHX 030527 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1227 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Dry and relatively quiet day so far across the mid state, with temperatures already in the 80s for many locations. Highs are still expected to get to the mid to upper 80s, with even a reading hitting 90 possible this afternoon thanks to the upper ridge thats currently moving eastward. An approaching shortwave trough from the southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area likely after midnight and through the day Friday. The trough does weaken as it moves over the mid state, and another weak shortwave follows behind for Friday evening/overnight. Despite a weak cold front moving through Friday, severe storm chances are low, which is due to the deep layer shear remaining weak due to the shortwaves also being on the weak side. Instability will still be in place, so cant rule out some heavy downpours and even some isolated gusty winds, but lightning will be the focus for any outdoor events tomorrow and into the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Saturday will see continued chances for showers and storms, especially in the south and east as the weak shortwave trough moves northeastward. A break in the showers and storms looks possible Saturday night into the morning Sunday with mainly isolated chances for rain, but yet another trough and diurnal support brings showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast Sunday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will be just off to our west, but still deep layer shear will remain weak, so the severe storm threat remains low at this time. Temperatures will remain warm next week as southwest flow aloft stays in place, but that also keeps the active pattern going with any disturbance aloft allowing for showers and storms to develop. Current forecast has rain chances in each day next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening when diurnal support is best. Rainfall amounts tonight through Thursday next week look to be around 1 to 2 inches for most of the area, but obviously any stronger convection would bring the potential for locally higher amounts of rain. Models are not on board with any severe risk next week either as of current runs this morning, so it looks to be mainly afternoon showers and storms bringing some needed rainfall, but stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Already we are beginning to see scattered light showers develop across Middle Tennessee as a surface trough approaches the mid state from the west. For now, conditions at all terminals are VFR, but not for much longer. During the next several hours, showers will become more prevalent and ceilings will lower to MVFR and will remain there for much of the morning. Expect ceilings to improve somewhat during the afternoon as we experience some surface heating and boundary layer mixing, but rain chances will stay with us. There will be some instability in place, so we do expect a few thunderstorms to develop mainly during the afternoon, but they will be scattered in nature and not prevalent enough to warrant mention in the TAFs just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 81 65 80 64 / 80 70 60 30 Clarksville 78 63 79 63 / 80 40 50 30 Crossville 75 60 74 59 / 80 70 80 40 Columbia 80 63 82 63 / 70 70 70 30 Cookeville 76 62 76 61 / 90 80 80 40 Jamestown 76 60 75 59 / 90 70 80 40 Lawrenceburg 80 64 80 63 / 70 70 70 30 Murfreesboro 80 64 81 62 / 80 70 70 30 Waverly 78 63 81 63 / 70 50 50 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Rose