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000
FXUS64 KOHX 211631
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1131 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The light showers that have been effecting our southern counties
are pushing out and we are seeing cold air advection build over
the region. This is bringing clearing skies and we should see a
sunny afternoon. Highs will remain on the chilly side again today
pushing into the lower 60s. Overnight will bring clear skies and
light winds. This will cool us into the 30s and frost is likely
across the area by daybreak. A Frost Advisory has been posted for
all of Middle TN.

Upper level ridge builds in from the West early this week and that
will bring great weather with the start of a warming trend. Highs
will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow pushing into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

We will see another cool night Monday night but should be a bit
warmer than tonight and frost is unlikely. Upper level ridge will
push east on Tuesday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This
will push a weak cold front into our area later Tuesday into early
Wednesday and may bring a few light spotty showers. The front
will have little effect on temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Upper level ridging builds in behind the trough and will bring
quiet weather for much of the remainder of the week with
continued warming temperatures. We should see them push back to
near 80 by the end of the week.

Things will start to become a bit more unsettled late week into
the weekend as long wave troughing sets up over the West. This
will push short waves into the Plains and with southwest flow we
will see deep Gulf moisture build back north. Ensembles disagree
with exact timing and placement of the short waves but do agree on
keeping the forcing to our northwest with us sitting on the
western edge of the upper level ridge. With dew points pushing
into the 60s we will see CAPE build in over the area. This will
result in thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast but
widespread convection isn`t expected through the weekend. Highs
will be warming well into the 80s also.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period at all airports with
overcast cigs today scattering out by this evening. VCSH will
impact CSV/SRB early this morning, but otherwise no precipitation
is anticipated. North winds will increase after 15Z with gusts up
to 25 knots at times through 00Z, before decreasing to 5-10 knots
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    59  36  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     56  33  61  39 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       60  35  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     57  35  61  41 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      56  33  61  39 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   60  35  65  41 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  35  66  39 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        60  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Shamburger