320
FXUS61 KOKX 061820
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
220 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes
through tonight. Weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday
before the front returns as a warm front on Wednesday. A series
of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday,
and possibly into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
What is left of a frontal boundary just south of the area will
continue to dissipate while a cold front approaches from the
west. Expect varying amounts of clouds with peaks of sun from
time to time, especially across SE CT. Temperatures were
varying quite bit due to differences in the cloud cover with
the warmest conditions across LI and CT. Most locations away
from the immediate coast are forecast to get into the upper 60s
to around 70. This is a drop for some locations and a bump up
for others. Max temps will likely need to be modified through
the afternoon. Early spring can often be a challenge across the
area due to low clouds and fog.

Meanwhile, a closed upper low swings into eastern Canada and
will help send a cold front through the region tonight.

Can`t rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon, mainly
across the interior, ahead of the trailing cold front, but
coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with weak lift
and moisture. Maintained a low chance of a thunderstorm as well,
but likely isolated at best.

For tonight, there could be redevelopment of low clouds and fog,
especially across the coast. This is still being assessed as
some drier moves in aloft ahead of the cold front. Low-level
still may be moist enough. The front moves through tonight, and
the flow veers NW as a result, bringing in drier air and
decreasing cloud cover overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes behind
the fropa on Tuesday. This should set up the clearest day of the
week so far, with drier air working down in the northerly flow.
A mild afternoon for most with downsloping helping the interior
and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper
70s. Lower 80s possible in the urban metro of NE NJ. Much more
sky than clouds should be apparent and sunshine prevails much of
the day.

Thereafter, the front that pushed through Monday night stalls
over the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday in zonal flow, returning to the
region Tuesday night as a warm front as the high erodes and low
pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. This will reintroduce
rain chances by Wed AM, and perhaps some thunderstorms into
Wednesday afternoon. Still a bit too far for our CAM coverage,
so timing and coverage will need to be refined over the next day
or two. SPC currently has the region outlined in a general
thunder risk.

Wednesday is likely the hottest day of the week for at least
portions of the area as the warm front attempts to lift north.
Exceptions may be eastern LI and southern CT, where onshore
southerly flow will limit temperatures. Elsewhere, low 80s
possible, with mid 80s into NE NJ. The attendant cold front
passes through Wednesday night as the low exits to our east, but
the pattern remains unsettled into late week as a wave of low
pressure along the boundary to the south approaches thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a
secondary low center forming and passing over us or just off to our
south Thursday night. As energy continues to transfer from the
parent low to the secondary low center, a lingering trough between
the two centers remains near the forecast area during Friday. Rain
is likely Thursday and Thursday night, with still some chances of
showers during Friday with moisture convergence along the trough
along with some shortwave lift from aloft. An isolated rumble of
thunder can`t be ruled out mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as
elevated instability will be present.

There`s some uncertainty regarding the weekend, but overall there
seems to be a model trend over the past day or two toward drier
conditions. Although both days currently feature a chance of showers
in the forecast, it can very well end up dry all weekend. There are
indications of deep weak ridging for Saturday, then an area of low
pressure that may pass too far to our south and west on Sunday to
bring showers.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term period. Cooler
than normal through Saturday with a return toward more seasonable
temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes
through tonight. Weak high pressure will briefly return on
Tuesday.

Some MVFR cigs are still hanging around the NYC metro area but
should lift to VFR at some point late this afternoon. Sct late
day showers could also produce MVFR vsby from the NYC metros
north/west from about 21Z-24Z.

IFR/LIFR cond appear likely to return tonight to KISP/KGON, but
the situation is highly uncertain for the NYC metro terminals.
Shallow moisture ahead of the approaching front could lead to
redevelopment of low clouds/fog with MVFR or IFR conditions.
Confidence high enough to mention IFR cond for KJFK for a few
hours (04Z-07Z) just ahead of the cold front, but these
conditions could very well expand to the other metros as well as
KHPN, and would be handled via later amendments if necessary.

After cold fropa, conds should improve to VFR from the NYC
metros north/west, with N-NE flow less than 10 kt after daybreak
Tue. Improvement to VFR will take longer farther east as winds
after fropa will remain light until close to daybreak. Coastal
sea breezes possible by late morning/early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence fcst for tonight. IFR cond could begin sooner at
KJFK this evening and also expand to the other terminals.
Unscheduled AMD likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR.

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR
cond possible.

Wednesday: MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Cond improving to
VFR mid to late afternoon. Chance of showers. Tstms possible
mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm,
especially in the afternoon and at night.

Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise
VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. The
ocean waters may need to be extended into this evening.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions
through Wednesday.

Easterly winds increase on Thursday, and this onshore flow combined
with swell being generated from low pressure passing nearby is
expected to build ocean seas to advisory levels starting late
Thursday night into Friday morning, and lasting well into Friday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new
moon Tuesday night.

A statement has been issued for localized minor flooding with
tonight`s high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the
south shore back bays of Nassau County.

A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate
advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more
likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through
at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles
may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk
County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...