Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 160558
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1058 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Tuesday through Thursday will be cooler with widely scattered
showers over the mountainous terrain of north Idaho and the
Washington Cascades. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s
and low 30s in north Idaho and northeast Washington on Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday mornings. The weather will be warmer and
drier over the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The cold front will exit the region. It will
usher in colder air and declining winds behind it. Snow levels
are expected to drop to near surface. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 20s and 30s. While the snow levels drop, the cold air
will be accompanied dry air. Most locations are expecting a precip
free period. Stevens Pass is expected to have snow overnight with
a 60% probability of at least 4 inches. Surface temps will make
it hard for accumulation on the roadways. Outside of the Cascades,
the shower activity is expected to be in the higher terrain along
the Canadian Border. Amounts will be light with little to no
accumulation expected. Winds will be weaker but still be breezy
with sustained in the teens and gusts in the 20 mph range. Tuesday
highs will be lower than Mondays. Highs will be in the upper 40s
and 50s. /JDC
Wednesday through Monday: Chances for showers and daytime temps
slightly below daily normals are expected Wednesday as a weather
disturbance drops southward across the Inland Northwest. The best
precip chances will be across NE WA and N ID. Conditions look to dry
out for Thursday and Friday. Though not with strong consensus,
several extended range models indicate a trough pushing though over
the weekend, with precip chances returning to the forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. Through the entire extended range forecast, temps
do not appear likely to stray very far from seasonal norms. /KD
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Westerly pressure gradients have begun to relax this
evening following the passage of today`s cold front. For the
remainder of the night, winds will be less gusty at our TAF sites.
Breezy west or southwest winds will return by mid to late morning
across the majority of central/eastern Washington and north Idaho
with sustained 10 to 14kt winds with gusts up to 20kts. Between
19z-02z there will be a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain showers
over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of Washington
including Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Coeur d`Alene, Spokane,
Kellogg, and Pullman. With snow levels as low as 3000 feet, the
high terrain near some of the north Idaho airports may be obscured
by afternoon convective showers.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The majority of
the 0z HREF members generate convection near the Spokane
International Airport. The operational GFS and ECMWF push most of
the shower activity east of GEG Tuesday afternoon. As the new
National Blend ingests this data, we will get a better idea of the
non-HREF members support the introduction of PROB30 showers at
KGEG. /GKoch
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 52 32 53 32 55 / 0 10 10 20 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 34 49 32 50 31 53 / 0 20 20 20 0 0
Pullman 35 48 30 50 30 54 / 0 10 10 10 10 0
Lewiston 42 55 37 57 36 61 / 0 10 0 10 0 0
Colville 31 54 31 54 29 55 / 0 20 20 20 10 10
Sandpoint 35 48 32 49 32 50 / 0 40 50 30 20 10
Kellogg 36 46 33 48 32 50 / 0 40 30 40 20 20
Moses Lake 39 57 34 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 37 54 36 58 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 34 56 35 59 34 61 / 0 10 10 20 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$