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000
FXUS64 KOUN 111754
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Key Message:

A fire danger statement has been issued for today for our northern
two tiers of Oklahoma counties as strong winds and dry air will
yield elevated to near critical fire weather conditions (from
approximately 10 AM - 7 PM)...

A weak cold front, currently poised over south-central Kansas,
will move into our area within the next few hours and bring a
drier air mass into our area. Behind the front, high pressure
will begin to enter our area from the high plains which will cause
the pressure gradient to tighten. Clear skies will also allow
daytime mixing to tap into the 40-50 knot LLJ. Thus, north-
northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph possible. The strongest winds are expected to be centered
over north-central Oklahoma from mid-morning to mid-afternoon.
CAA behind the front will reinforce seasonable temperatures and
highs are expected to be mostly in the upper 60`s with low 70`s
expected across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Tonight, clear and cool with winds becoming light as the surface
ridge passes with predominantly southerly winds in place by Friday
morning.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Key Message:
Severe thunderstorms, some significant, are expected on Monday
with the approach of a potent upper trough and sharpening dryline.
All hazards are possible...

An upper ridge will bring mostly sunny skies and low-level
southerly flow will advect warmer temperatures this weekend. By
Sunday, very warm conditions will be felt and moisture advection
increases dewpoints into the 50`s/60`s. An upper trough, currently
located over the Gulf of Alaska, will reach California by Sunday
morning and is then prog`d to swing across the four corners
region. This system is likely to bring severe thunderstorms to our
area on Monday or Monday night.

Overall, there is still considerable spread among ensembles with
regard to timing of the upper trough, and thus the placement of
the dryline remains unclear. Recent model runs have trended
slower with the upper trough, which would keep the dryline farther
west on Monday afternoon (near the panhandle to far western
Oklahoma). In addition, latest guidance suggests more cloud-cover
and CIN within the warm sector (much of Oklahoma) than previously
modeled.

Still, there remains concerning signals for significant severe
weather to impact our area. The 12Z grand ensemble now depicts
higher surface-based instability (SBCAPE) of 1000 J/kg ahead of the
dryline, which is relatively high for being five days out. The 00Z
GEFS has a very high (80% to 90%) probability of instability over
1000 J/kg across western north Texas, west-central to north-central
Oklahoma by mid-day Monday. Initiation, however, will likely be
focused near the dryline and the location of which is somewhat
uncertain at this time, though data narrows the most likely area
to be between the 100th meridian and I-35.

The next chance for thunderstorms is Wednesday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue through the
TAF period.

Gusty northwest winds will decrease this evening and become light
and variable before shifting to the southeast. Southerly winds
will increase toward the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  45  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         70  44  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  47  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  42  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  39  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  46  78  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09