329
FXUS64 KOUN 111944
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A lead shortwave trough is resulting in an area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms across the Texas panhandle into western
north Texas/southwest Oklahoma. Rain will move to the east-
northeast in tandem with the shortwave trough. However, with a dry
subcloud layer, rain should gradually decrease in coverage with
northeast extent this evening.

A mid/upper-level low will slowly move eastward across Kansas
Sunday into Sunday night in tandem with a mid-level jet associated
with the subtropical jet. Both features will be associated with
synoptic-scale ascent across the Southern Plains. The ascent will
result in widespread showers and thunderstorms that will move
eastward during the day Sunday. While cloud cover should
significantly limit solar insolation and attendant surface-based
instability, there is the potential for hail with the most intense
cores from elevated instability.

By late afternoon, there might be sufficient solar insolation in
the wake of the earlier convection for surface-based instability
east of the dryline across the Texas panhandle. If this occurs,
more robust convection is possible in this area, which could move
eastward into western Oklahoma and north Texas late afternoon into
the evening hours. Large hail will the primary hazard and
damaging wind gusts the secondary hazard (especially if there is
some upscale growth of any convection). Any convection should
decrease in intensity during the evening with decreasing
instability with eastward extent.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Given the slow eastward movement of the upper-level low, wrap-
round rain chances will continue into Monday--especially across
the eastern half of the area.

There should be a lull in rain on Tuesday as mid-level heights
rise as the mid/upper-level low moves toward the Midwest. The lull
will be brief as another trough approaches the Southern Plains
late Wednesday into Thursday with widespread rainfall expected.
While it`s too early for specifics, elevated instability and shear
appear sufficient for some severe weather potential. Dry
conditions are expected in the wake of the system by Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Area of SHRA/TSRA moving into region from the west should decrease
in both coverage and intensity through the afternoon, but will
likely impact southern Oklahoma and KSPS with brief rain. Will
confine TSRA mention to KSPS this afternoon associated with weak
upper trough moving through with more elevated instability south
of the Red River. MVFR and widespread SHRA/TSRA will be mainly
after 12Z spreading west to east. Winds will remain light except
near any TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  71  60  76 /  20  80  90  40
Hobart OK         57  71  57  78 /  50  80  80  20
Wichita Falls TX  61  72  62  81 /  40  90  50  10
Gage OK           54  72  52  75 /  70  90  80  30
Ponca City OK     59  74  59  74 /  20  70 100  70
Durant OK         61  72  64  82 /  20  70  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11