Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 280923
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
523 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will
bring seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather through
Friday. A few sprinkles are possible mainly south of Pittsburgh
Friday morning. A series of low pressure systems are then
expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near seasonal temperatures expected behind a cold front.
- Dry weather and clearing skies with building high pressure.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Satellite shows that stratocu clouds have stuck around a little
longer than anticipated this morning, with the westernmost edge
still along the PA/OH/WV state lines. This has kept area
temperatures a couple degrees warmer than previously forecast.
Still, areas north and west of Pittsburgh are likely to dip just
below freezing come dawn.

An upper trough axis will cross the region today and tonight,
though the associated surface low will track far south and east
of our area. Surface ridging will build into the area through
tonight, keeping dry conditions with seasonable temperatures and
helping to clear area skies this morning into the afternoon.

A series of vigorous shortwaves will traverse the western edge
of the upper trough as the axis crosses the region this evening
and overnight. The second of these waves may spawn a few light
showers or sprinkles late tonight into Friday morning. Any
precipitation that does fall will remain generally south of
Pittsburgh and focused along the ridges with upslope flow. Given
thermal profiles and limited moisture mostly below the DGZ,
precipitation should mainly fall as light rain, through a few
flakes and flurries are possible in the higher terrain.
Accumulation (rain or snow) will be minimal and end Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Outside of an isolated shower south of PGH, dry weather
  continues Friday.
- Gradually warming daily temperatures are expected.
- Gusty west to northwest winds expected over eastern Tucker
  County WV ridges Friday afternoon/evening
-

------------------------------------------------------------------

Any lingering light and isolated showers will end Friday morning
as the shortwave exits and upper height rises begin. Plentiful
sunshine and renewed warm advection will boost Friday afternoon
high temperatures several degrees higher than Thursday.

As flow turns more westerly, models continue to show a 55-60kt
mountain wave at 850 mb just east of Tucker County, WV Friday
afternoon and evening. NBM probabilities for Advisory criteria
(>40 knot gusts) has increased to 75-95% in eastern Tucker.
Strongest gusts should remain downstream, but expect the ridges
to get quite windy with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely at the Dolly
Sods Mesonet site.

The upper ridge becomes more flattened with westerly flow aloft
Friday night into Saturday. As the first of a series of
shortwaves crosses the region, weak low pressure will shift out
of the Midwest. Warm advection ahead of this feature will
return widespread rain chances to the area by early Saturday
morning. Shower coverage should gradually diminish Saturday
evening into the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A series of weak low pressure systems will keep showers and
  thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the period.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.
- Rainfall totals Saturday to Wednesday of 2-4 inches expected
  from Morgantown WV to Tucker County WV.

----------------------------------------------------------------

A brief lull in rainfall is expected Sunday, in the wake of the
low as the front drops south and stalls. Rainfall potential will
depend on how far south the front stalls. For now, greatest PoPs
(25-40%) remain south of Pittsburgh through the day.

The front is expected to lift northwards once again Sunday night
and early Monday as warm advection renews. This will bring
rounds of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the
west-east boundary Monday and Monday night.

As a phasing and deepening trough creates a deeper low on
Tuesday, a more vigorous system closes out the wet period with
cooler northwest flow expected by Wednesday as the low pushes
east of area.

CSU MLP shows increasing severe risk Monday into Tuesday in the
Ohio Valley. The excessive rain component also shows potential
increasing Monday in the Ohio area for heavy rainfall. NBM has
increasing probabilities of 2"+ over the northern WV portion of
the forecast area and there is certainly concern for 2-4" of
rain down in the Morgantown WV, Preston, and Tucker County areas
for possible flooding or flash flooding issues. WPC now
highlights the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on
Monday (Day 5).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR stratocu, generally east of a FKL-BVI-HLG line, will
continue to gradually clear from west to east as surface high
pressure builds across the region. WNW wind will increase to
around 10kt through the day, with a few gusts near 20kt
possible.

VFR stratocu cigs are expected to increase tonight as a weak
shortwave crosses the region. A few light rain or snow showers
are possible south of PIT, where slightly more favorable
moisture is expected with the wave. A brief period of MVFR is
possible at MGW, though the latest model probabilities of
occurrence are less than 50 percent, so did not include in the
taf at this time.

.Outlook...
VFR is expected through Friday night under high pressure.
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with
crossing low pressure. VFR briefly returns Sunday under high
pressure, before restrictions in showers/possible tstms return
Sunday night and Monday with a warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Craven/Rackley
AVIATION...WM


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