Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
233 FXUS65 KPIH 170757 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 157 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. A cold front will arrive today. Strong winds are likely this afternoon as the front passes through. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of 58 mph or greater gusts extending from the Arco Desert into East Idaho. The southern edge of the better chance for high winds is roughly around Fort Hall, with Pocatello only standing about a 20 percent chance of reaching 58 mph. With that said, solid 70 percent chance throughout the wind advisory area of seeing at least 45 mph gusts this afternoon. With lots of plowing ongoing, blowing dust seems almost certain and typical trouble spots could be, well, troublesome. There is a lot of dry air with this system so we`re not expecting much in the way of precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be almost 10 degrees colder today. On Saturday, the system departs and winds are much lighter. Some gusts to 45 mph remain possible near Mud Lake in the afternoon, with about a 50% chance of reaching those thresholds there. Probably not widespread enough to warrant an advisory though. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 60s across the upper Snake Plain to the low 70s in the Magic Valleys, with 50s and low 60s common for most of the communities in the mountains and highlands. 13 .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. On Sunday, another shortwave trough will press into the region. Like the current system, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and precipitation looks light with chances mainly confined to the mountains and highlands for Sunday into Monday. Unlike the current system, the Sunday system doesn`t have near the wind. However, there is roughly a 50% chance of meeting advisory levels for the upper Snake Plain. Looks like we may see a break in between systems on Tuesday. But for Wednesday through Friday, model consensus is bringing a closed low into the Pacific Northwest and the overwhelming majority of them (90%) show this to be a fairly potent storm. This system looks like a good bet for bringing widespread precipitation to the area with snow possible for the mid to upper slopes, roughly above 6500 feet. Temperatures through the extended are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. 13 && .AVIATION...Strong gusts likely at Snake Plain TAF sites today. Gusts to 45kts are likely at PIH and IDA with gusts to 35kts more likely at BYI and DIJ. KSUN will likely see a gusty west- southwesterly wind today. With the interactions with the local mountains, turbulence is probably pretty likely there although it may not quite fit the definition for low level wind shear. 13 && .HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for other rivers, including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton, and Snake, are slowly climbing due to snowmelt, but all rivers look to remain below action stage with current forecasts. Wyatt/13 && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-055>058-062-065-067-068-070. High Wind Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054. && $$