Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 270529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVR UT AND WRN
CO INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACRS WY AND ERN CO INTO THU
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE OVER AND NR THE HYR TRRN
THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN PLAINS. THE UPR
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE CONTDVD THRU THE NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
OVR THE ERN MTNS.

THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AS THE TROF MOVES EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR ERN AREAS AS WELL...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF MOVES
EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WL MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WL CONTINUE OVR
ERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SW AND SC U.S...
AND AN ADVANCING TROUGH OVER THE PACNW. AFTER OUR CURRENT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU INTO FRI
MORNING...SHOULD SEE STORM COVERAGE START TO DROP OFF AS MOST
OF THE FORCING SHIFTS INTO KS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION. COOLER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEN...THE HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD...WHILE SW FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS WRN CO.
THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
THAT IS INDICATING A BIT MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING THAN
WHAT EARLIER RUNS WERE SHOWING. SO...AT LEAST FOR THE MTS AND WRN
PORTION OF THE CWA...ONGOING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A
GOOD BET. WITH NO REAL DISTURBANCE OR WX FEATURE TO BRING UPSLOPE
OR OTHER TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS...LOOKS LIKE THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF AUGUST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24H. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ALL OF THE TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS....ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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