Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SKIES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR...WITH LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  WITH A FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS.  WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWARD AND WL
KEEP THAT IN PLACE.  IT LOOKS LIKE HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES WL GENERALLY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE OVR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS OVR
THE AREA WL BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS BEING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SOME SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE IMPACT OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. NOT
A LOT OF RUN TO RUN OR INTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTIES.

WED-THU...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH
POPS BASICALLY ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISS VALLEY WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
PLAINS BY THU...WITH TEMPS NR SEASONAL VALUES.

FRI-SUN...WILL START TO SEE SW FLOW STRENGTHEN OVER THE CWA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST E OF OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK DRYLINE MAY SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE PLAINS...AND FARTHER EAST. WITH THE LATEST RUNS THE
EC IS A GOOD 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE THE DEGREE
OF PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN BRANCH LOW...WHICH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EC...AND THE SRN END OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS LAGS THE SRN BRANCH BEHIND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO IT IS NOT AS STRONGLY PHASED AS THE EC. THE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD
BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY
BY LATE SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL PREDICT A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
SO...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY E OF THE CONTDVD. FOR THE DVD...IT LOOKS LIKE
PROBABLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS MODEST
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS COME TOGETHER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FROM THE ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST...SINCE THERE IS
GOOD CONSISTENCY THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND MOISTURE. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR ANY PRECIP E OF
THE MTS. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD
THE MOISTURE RETURN IS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART BY LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE OF NEXT WEEK...LEAVING US AGAIN UNDER A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WITH DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN AND THERMALLY DRIVEN
WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093-
095>098.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



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