Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210539
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Main concerns are the Pikes Peak region this evening and SW mtns
tomorrow late afternoon...

Currently...

Temperatures across the region at 2 pm were quite chilly across all
of the fcst area. Readings were mainly in the 20s in the valleys and
plains, although a few teens were noted. In the mtns, especially at
highest elevations, it was quite cold with readings will below zero.
Snow showers where ongoing across the higher terrain as indicated by
obs, web cams and inferred by convective nature of the clouds in the
sat pix imgy. Some light snow was also noted in the upslope regions
across the Pikes Peak region.

A short wave was moving into western Colorado and will move over the
region later this afternoon and evening.

Rest of today and tonight...

main concern later today/evening will be the chance of snow over the
Pikes Peak region. Hi res guidance this afternoon has been
persistent on showing snow over parts of Teller and N El Paso
county. For this reason have bumped up pops in above mentioned area
with 1-2" of new snow possible. Additional light accumulations will
also  be possible across the rest of the higher terrain, especially
north of highway 50. Otherwise expect a cold night tonight with
readings in the positive and negative single digits region-wide.
Areas for freezing fog will also be possible tonight, especially
across the plains. Quite a bit of low clouds are likely across the
plains tonight.

Tomorrow...

Low clouds across the plains tomorrow will be slow to break up,
especially near the mtns. However we should see some clearing most
area by afternoon.

The action will shift to the west as another in a series of
shortwaves will eject out of the longwave trough located over the
wester conus. Clouds will once again increase and snow should begin
to fall across the contdvd by afternoon, especially across the sw
slopes of the san juan mtns. One to two inches of additional snow
will be possible across the san juans by sunset tomorrow. Lighter
accums will be possible across the remainder of the higher
elevations.

Temps tomorrow will be warmer than today, with most areas on the
plains and larger valleys reaching the freezing mark. Areas down
near Trinidad to Pinon could reach into the mid to upper 30s.

Winds tomorrow across the higher terrain will be significantly less
than today, with SW flow continuing in the valleys and mtns and
southeasterlies continuing across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Unsettled Weather Pattern through the Weekend...

Wednesday night-Thursday...Increasing southwest flow aloft is
progged across the region Wednesday night and becomes more westerly
through the day Thursday, as another Eastern Pacific trough across
the Great Basin lifts out Rockies. Models fairly consistent (though
2012Z ECMWF did not make it into AWIPS) snow increasing in coverage
and intensity across the Southwest Mountains Wednesday evening, with
snow spreading across the rest of ContDvd, through the high mountain
valleys and Eastern Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday. With the
orographic southwest flow, should see 6 to 12 inches across the
Eastern San Juan Mountains through the day Thursday, and have issued
a Winter Weather Advisory from 03Z Thu through 00Z Fri to match.
Snow amounts across the rest of the ContDvd and Eastern Mountains
ranging from 2 to 9 inches, with the highest amounts currently
looking to be over the higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Snow amounts across the high mountain valleys look to
range from a trace to 2 inches through this period. Further east,
with cool air and light low level upslope flow in place, can`t rule
out some light overrunning snow showers across the I-25 Corridor and
Plains, late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Have kept best
pops across the Pikes Peak Region for now, where the light upslope
will be maximized. Temperatures on Thursday look to be below
seasonal averages in the 30s and 40s across the Plains, and mainly
in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain.

Thursday night-Saturday...Yet another Pacific system (digging across
the Pac Northwest Coast through the day Wednesday) is progged to dig
into the Great Basin on Thursday night and then slowly lift out
across the Rockies Friday night and Saturday. Models indicating the
possibility of this system splitting, with strongest portions of the
this system moving north and south of South Central and Southeast
Colorado. At any rate, should see snow ramping up again through the
day Friday across the ContDvd, especially the Southwest Mountains,
with light to moderate snow amounts possible from the Friday through
early Saturday timeframe. Further east, stayed close to model
blended pops, which keeps slight and chance pops across the area in
the Friday night and Saturday timeframe. Temperatures to remain
below seasonal levels through the period, with warmest readings
across the Plains on Friday.

Saturday night-Tuesday...Another embedded wave looks to move across
the Northern Rockies in the Saturday night and Sunday timeframe,
bringing snow showers to Northern and Central Mountains, and
possibly northern portions of the Southeast Plains. A slow warming
and drying trend remains possible into early next week, before
another Pacific system moves across the West Coast and takes aim on
the Rockies into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow around KCOS beginning to fade away and expect only some
occasional flurries the remainder of the night. IFR cigs will be
slow to clear as low level flow remains se, and will keep lower
clouds in place until 16-17z, although there may be some breaks
and MVFR conditions at times. Dense fog formation at KCOS
beginning to look less likely as statistical guidance and model
soundings show some slight boundary layer drying into the morning,
so left br out of the taf for now, though some shallow ground fog
could develop toward morning near/north the terminal. Cigs should
gradually become VFR by 18z, then VFR for the remainder of the
day and into Wed evening. At KPUB, occasional VFR cigs expected
through the night, and will have to monitor for some ground fog
formation along the Arkansas River just south of the terminal
toward sunrise. VFR then expected to continue Wed and Wed evening.
At KALS, VFR tonight and Wed, with a period of gusty sw winds
after 20z. Could see some vcsh after 02-03z as snow develops over
the San Juans and begins to spill eastward, though better chances
for precip will likely hold off until early Thu morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 PM MST Thursday
for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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