766
FXUS65 KPUB 272039
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavy snow continues across Teller and northern El Paso
  counties, and the Continental Divide through this evening

- Window for severe thunderstorms is rapidly closing for the far southeast
  plains where higher stability behind the front has hindered
  more robust thunderstorm development this afternoon and
  humidity may stay too high for critical fire weather
  conditions to materialize

- Another round of rain and snow showers expected for Sunday
  before drying out for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Upper low over CO will continue to lift northeastward into NE
tonight.  With the cold core overhead late this afternoon and
evening, it still looking at a variety of hazards will impact
southern CO. These will range from heavy snow across the central
mountains and Pikes Peak region with slushy wet accumulations
possible for the Palmer Divide, to thunderstorms with some hail
potential for the plains.

As for details, wrapped up upper low will keep a broad band of rain
and snow showers going beneath the TROWAL across the Pikes Peak
region and central mountains. Other bands of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will spiral around the southern periphery
of the upper low across the southeast plains. Moderate to heavy
snow will continue across the Pikes Peak region through this
evening before decreasing after midnight. While road surfaces
have stayed around freezing and primarily wet across the high
country, impacts from heavy wet snow on visibility will continue
into this evening and could still cause slick roads as road
temperatures drop below freezing this evening. All highlights
come down around 06z-12z which still looks on target and may be
able to be taken down sooner for the southwest mountains.

Meanwhile, the cold front has pushed farther south across the plains
and has been slower to lift northward leaving Baca county under
higher humidity and much of the plains under greater stability. Red
Flag conditions have not materialized across Baca county and will
take the Red Flag Warning down with the afternoon package. SPC meso
analysis keeps the best instability across Baca county where a few
CAMS have strong cells moving across the area north of the frontal
boundary through 3-4 PM. SSCRAM runs have been backing off on
any severe or brief tornado risk and with the window rapidly
closing towards 3 PM. While we could see a strong storm or two
near the KS border in Baca and Prowers and eastern Kiowa counties
late this afternoon, think the main risk will be hail to near 1
inch in diameter and some gusty winds to near 60 mph.

Most of the precipitation will wind down after midnight.  It will
remain cool and unsettled for Sunday as the upper low pulls away and
some trailing energy in northwest flow moves in from the west.  This
will spark another round of rain/snow showers in and near the
mountains, though coverage and intensities will be more limited
than today`s. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below seasonal
normals. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

It will dry out and warm up for the early part of the week. Westerly
flow increases as the next system drops in from the northwest on
Tuesday.  This may ramp up fire weather concerns again for the San
Luis Valley and southern portions of the southeast plains depending
on the timing of the cold front which drops through the plains in
the late afternoon.  Will hold off on any fire highlights this far
out, but it will bear watching. Eventually this system will push
eastward across WY and northern CO though timing varies between the
long range models.  This would spread rain and snow showers back
into the central mountains and the potential for thunderstorms
across portions of the southeast plains along and north of the
frontal boundary. Cooler temperatures then follow for Thursday with
growing uncertainties farther out depending on the timing and track
of the next system which varies significantly with various model
runs. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024


Primarily MVFR cigs/vis with RASN will continue at KCOS with
the heaviest precipitation falling through this evening. Any
additional accumulations will remain light and melt off on
pavement surfaces. North winds gusting up to 25 kts will
continue before winding down this evening. Cigs raise back into
the VFR category after 06z as precipitation comes to an end.

KPUB will see rounds of SHRA through the afternoon though cigs
will predominantly stay VFR. Winds will stay north to
northeasterly with gusts to around 25 kts before decreasing this
evening. Improving conditions can be expected overnight.

KALS will remain VFR with breezy southerly winds gusting to 25
kts diminishing after 02-03z. -SHRA will be possible though cigs
should remain VFR. Winds will shift out of the north this
evening becoming light and variable overnight with showers
diminishing after 06z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081-
082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061-
063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT