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000
FXUS65 KPUB 230206
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
806 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front pushes across the eastern plains overnight tonight, producing
  cooler temperatures and isolated convection along the eastern
  mts Tuesday afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions will return to the San Luis
  Valley for Tuesday through Thursday afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions worsen in coverage and severity
  on Thursday, ahead of our next approaching weather system.

- A trend towards cooler and wetter weather is expected for most
  areas for Friday through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Updated forecasts to end Red Flag Warning at 8 pm. Cold front
making quick progress through the plains this evening with
boundary through Pueblo as of 8 pm and accelerating southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Currently...Upper low tracking along the US and Canada border just
north of North Dakota was producing brisk westerly flow across the
Rocky Mt region today, as well as pushing a cold front south into
far northeastern CO as of 130 PM. West winds gusting up to 40-50 mph
at times have been reported along the I-25 Corridor this afternoon,
as temps have climbed the mid 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys,
and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Current red Flag Warning for
portions of the area looks like it is working out quite well.

Tonight and tomorrow...The upper low to the north will continue
pushing east over the next 24 hrs, allowing slight ridging to
develop over the Four Corners region. The cold front edging into the
NE corner of the state right now is expected to push south across
the Palmer Divide overnight between 3 and 6 AM, then push south
across all of the plains as surface winds then shift to a more
easterly direction. This will help cool high temps for the plains by
about 15 degrees as compared to today, but will also help in
moisture advection back towards the eastern mts. Therefore, by
midday isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two are
forecast to develop across the higher terrain, then move off across
the I-25 Corridor during the mid-afternoon.

The current Red Flag Warning looks good this evening and will likely
be allowed to expire naturally at 8 pm as temps cool and the winds
lessen. Looking at the weather variables for tomorrow, much of the
San Luis Valley was once again showing critical fire weather
indicators due to humidity levels and expected wind gusts.
Therefore, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for the Valley
noon to 8 PM.

Plan on overnight low temps tonight in the 30s to around 40F for the
high valleys, and in the 40s for the plains. High temps tomorrow
will warm into mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Westerly flow begins to increase over the region as ridging passes
overhead and a low moves onshore over California through this
period. This will mean increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft over
our region, along with increasing temperatures and mostly dry
conditions for our forecast area. Overnight lows Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will be mild, and around 5 degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year. With increasing southwesterly flow,
downsloping winds, and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will quickly
warm to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs in the low 80s
are expected across the plains, with mid 70s for El Paso County, the
Raton Mesa, and mountain valley locations. Relative humidity values
are expected to fall into the low teens across southern portions of
the forecast area, where critical fire weather conditions will be
possible. Southwesterly winds are expected to gust to around 35 mph
over the San Luis Valley, and to around 25 mph over the southern I-
25 corridor. Breezy conditions are expected over portions of eastern
Las Animas and Baca counties as well, however, dewpoints appear to
be higher over these areas especially given that winds will likely
be more southerly and southeasterly out east. Also of note, Buena
Vista and Salida could see periods of critical Red Flag conditions,
however, not enough of the zone is expected to see critical fire
weather conditions to warrant hightlights at this time.

Thursday..

By Wednesday Night, the low moves onshore over California, and
begins to trek eastward towards the four corners region. Models
bring an open wave over Colorado by Thursday afternoon and Thursday
evening, with the dry slot moving over most of our plains. A
potential dryline setup is possible over our far eastern plains,
though more recent model runs seem to push the system east earlier,
which would likely shove the dryline into Kansas too early for
convection in our area. If models trend towards their slower
solutions, keeping the dryline further west and into our eastern
plains, then severe thunderstorms could be a forecast challenge for
our Thursday. Current thinking is that the faster progression and
dry slot setup will make critical fire weather the more impactful
forecast challenge for Thursday. High fire danger will be possible
across all of our plains, to include El Paso County and Fremont
County, along with the San Luis Valley. SPC has already outlined
portions of our plains on their Day 5 Fire Weather Outlook. Some of
our eastern mountain zones could end up being included as well,
though rain and snow showers and existing snow cover could stave off
any concerns for the San Juans, La Garitas, central mountains, and
Teller County. Wind gusts to 50mph will be possible across the area,
especially south of highway 50.

Friday Onwards..

Our pattern remains cooler and unsettled as we head into Friday and
the weekend as well. Highs to look to remain in the 70s for Friday,
and will likely cool to near seasonal norms for Saturday and Sunday
as another potential wave looks to pass through the region on
Saturday. Critical fire weather concerns look to remain limited to
our southern plains on Friday and Saturday, and will likely depend
on any frontal timing. Our active pattern continues as we head into
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. An
isolated shower is possible over the higher terrain And Palmer
Divide this evening, but not enough to warrant a mention in the
TAFs. Plan on mid and high level cloudiness to linger through the
evening across the I-25 Corridor and higher terrain, with west-
southwest winds gusting up to 30 kt at times. An approaching cold
front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide in the 09z-
12z time frame, producing N-NE surface winds for KCOS and KPUB
overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE