Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 270315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
915 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM POPS AND CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. RAISED POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AND BOOSTED A LITTLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH SOME
BOUNDARY AND UPPER SHORTWAVE INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE FOR NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WILL KEEP FORECAST DISCUSSION RELATIVELY BRIEF DUE TO ACTIVE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
ISSUES FOR THE CWA CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

A MIX OF STORMS...INTENSE AT TIMES...IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY
ABOVE SEASONAL LATE JULY TEMPERATURES(AS EVIDENCED BY THE 4TH DAY IN
A ROW OF 100F OR HIGHER MAXIMUM READINGS AT KPUB) ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO OKLAHOMA BY
00Z TUESDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS(SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS) ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH UPPER ENERGY PER RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE(ALTHOUGH NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS TODAY) AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECTING STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM
SENDS WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT SHOULD HELP
BOOST HIGHS TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AS UPPER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER
AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS
WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND AVERAGE WEST
OF THE FRONT RANGE. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE TAIL END OF
PASSING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO WORK WITH THE INCREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO A WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA...KEEPING DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
STATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO MONDAY.
ALSO...DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOME LOW CEILINGS MAY BE
NOTED AT BOTH THE KPUB AND ESPECIALLY THE KCOS TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...77


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