Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232145
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

...Monsoonal Disturbance Headed This Way...

A monsoonal disturbance is visible rotating over northwest New
Mexico at this time.  It is tracking to the northeast and will come
across southern Colorado tonight.  This disturbance has been a
prolific shower and thunderstorm spawner over southwest Colorado
this afternoon.  Radar and satellite imagery show widespread showers
and storms developing in an arc ahead of the advancing disturbance.
Showers and storms over southern Colorado are likely to increase
through the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the
disturbance moves through.

High resolution models have some activity continuing over
the plains through or a even little past midnight.  It
appears that the heaviest and most widespread activity will
be over the southwest mountains, central mountains and Pikes
Peak region.  Burn scars will need to be monitored as heavy rain
potential continues.  Other possible storm threats this evening
will include lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph and small hail.

As we saw along the crest of the northern Sangre De Cristos
last night, some snow will be possible across the higher
elevations of the mountains tonight.  The heaviest amounts
are likely over the central mountains, where 1 to 3 inches could
fall primarily above 11 thousand feet.  For the rest of the
mountains, local accumulations up to an inch or 2 are possible
primarily above 11 thousand feet.

A cold front will slip south through the plains tonight and be in
place along the mountains by morning.  This will bring cooler
weather to the region tomorrow.  Temperatures will be about 15
degrees cooler over the plains and about 5 to 10 degrees cooler
elsewhere.  With another monsoon disturbance working across
the region and upslope flow in place across the plains, storm
coverage should be pretty good tomorrow.  Primary threats will
be lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rain and small
hail.  Flash flooding will also be possible, particularly in and
near area burn scars, including both the Hayden Pass and Waldo
scars.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Relative active meteorological conditions are expected to continue
over the majority of the longer term into at lest the weekend as
adequate atmospheric moisture interacts with upper disturbances
at times.

Meteorological challenges during the longer term include pops/qpf
and storm intensities at times in combination with temperatures.
Latest longer term computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings continue to suggest that relatively moist zonal to
southwestern upper flow will prevail into the weekend with upper
ridging then developing into southwestern Colorado by next
Tuesday.

The combination of the available atmospheric moisture and upper
disturbances will continue to allow daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms...the strongest of which will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain/hail and gusty winds at times.
As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flash flood potential as well as for any
stronger thunderstorm activity during the longer term. In
addition...some higher terrain snow also not out of the question
at times and have depicted in grids.

Both the ECMWF and GFS longer range computer simulations then
indicate that drier and warmer conditions should develop over the
forecast district by early next week as upper ridging builds into
the area.

Finally...near to below seasonal temperatures are projected from
Thursday into Saturday with near to above seasonal temperatures
developing over the majority of the forecast district from Sunday
into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A monsoon disturbance will rotate north across the flight area this
evening. This will bring another round of evening showers and
thunderstorms to the district. Primary storm threats will include
lightning, erratic thunderstorm outflow winds, heavy rain and
possibly small hail. Conditions will primarily be VFR in most areas
but there will be increasing areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions
developing in precipitation through the evening. Models keep some
activity going well into the evening across the plains, possibly not
dissipating until after 06z. KCOS, KPUB and KALS will all see a
chance for storms to be at or near the terminals this evening until
around 06z.&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE.

&&

$$


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