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000
FXUS65 KPUB 151519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
919 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SOME INITIAL THOUGHTS ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE HIGHER AND THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER
THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. 30/40 DWPTS ARE AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTHPARK AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY ARE IN THE
U30S AND 40S. DENVER SOUNDING SHOWS THE MOISTURE UP TO 700
MB...AND WITH A NORTH SFC WIND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. POINT SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM
FOR COS ACTUALLY SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH TIME DURING
PEAK HEATING (AND NOT MIXING OUT).

700 MB FLOW IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AND I DO NOT EXPECT ANY MODERATE
OR STRONG LLVL MESOCYCLONES TODAY BUT ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS IN
PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS (SEE SPC SSEO PAGE>HELICITY PARAMETER)...SO I
ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL HAVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR THE AREA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS WATCH LIKELY
COVERING THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER THE WALDO BURN SCAR (AND THE ROYAL
GORGE BURN SCAR AND THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR)...SO FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE PARAMETERS
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE BURN SCAR AREAS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW DOES FAVOR CONDITIONS FOR STORMS AS
WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS IS WE DO (DESPERATELY) NEED THE
RAIN...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET IT IN SEVERAL PLACES.
HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OOZED BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 10Z. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
TOWARD THE NM BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN MIX BACK NORTH TOWARD THE
ARKANSAS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER FROM KCOS TO
KLAA...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH AGAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 PLUS KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY...WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH...SO MAINLY
DRY CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THOUGHT ABOUT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING OVER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ZONES...BUT COVERAGE OF
TSRA LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A DEGC OR SO...AND
LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD STAY BELOW 100F FOR A
CHANGE. CONVECTION CONGEALS INTO A MCS OVER WESTERN KS IN THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MORNING. GRADUALLY TAPERED POPS
OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND ENDED ALL PRECIP CHANCE BY EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH INCREASED CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND A RETURN
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEYOND.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A
RIDGE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE ON
SUNDAY AND TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WIND AND LIGHTNING THREAT AND LIMITED QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OUT EAST...THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACK. THE GFS
HAS A STORM TRACK THAT CLIPS OUT NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE
EVENING WITH A SOUTHEAST MOVING MCS. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS
THE WHOLE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHIFTING
EAST AND CLEARING THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT THE MCS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.

A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
DECENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE A FEELING MONDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT EARLY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPING AN MCS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THIS MCS CAN
MATERIALIZE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS LESS CERTAIN ON
DEVELOPING AN MCS FEATURE THIS EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST.

BY WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
COLORADO AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXTREME CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE EXERCISED
DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP
FROM THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY 18Z
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
21Z. STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LITTLE RAINFALL...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MOISTER...LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AT THE
TAF SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH
20Z...THEN A VCTS MENTION FROM 20Z-02Z WITH ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
GUSTING TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DOUBT ANY TSRA WILL OCCUR OVER THE TERMINAL...BUT OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM STORMS NEAR THE MTS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST 20Z-23Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN