Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240532
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for this evening.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through 8 pm
for the Central Mountains, Palmer Divide and far Southeastern
Plains. Lightning will be the primary threat. Expect any showers
or thunderstorms that do manage to develop to dissipate with sun
down with dry conditions prevailing overnight.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

...Slight chances for evening storms Pikes Peak Region and far
eastern plains...

A weak upper level shortwave is tracking across the northern
Colorado Rockies this afternoon.  This system will act as a trigger
for a few afternoon and early evening showers and storms over the
central mountains and Pikes Peak Region.  Surface airmass is pretty
dry, so not looking for a whole lot of precipitation but certainly
some lightning and gusty winds to about 50 mph possible.  Also, so
local, wet, light snow accumulations possible above 10,000 feet.

Another area to watch for the possibility of a few evening showers
or storms is the far southeast plains, near the Kansas border. The
potential does not look great.  But, there are boundary remnants out
there, that try to sharpen up a little during the evening.  This
could act as an impetus for convection.  The Storm Prediction Center
has the marginal risk for severe weather draped over Kiowa, Prowers,
Bent and norther Baca County.  This looks pretty good based on where
the old boundary remnants should be.  Primary threats at this point,
if anything goes, look like 1 inch diameter hail, 60 mph winds and
lightning.  Overnight into Tuesday morning, there could be some low
cloud development across parts of the plains resulting from this
evening`s boundary and convective interactions.  This would
primarily be over portions of Kiowa, Prowers and Bent Counties.

Tuesday, the severe weather threaten sharpens but also shifts mainly
off to the north and east of southeast Colorado.  The Storm
Prediction Center has a slight and enhanced risk of severe weather
over the northeast Colorado plains, with the marginal risk area just
clipping northeast Kiowa County.  If this holds, little severe
weather threat over southern Colorado Tuesday.  However, if features
drift to the south just a tad, it could be a little busier down here
in the severe weather department.  The latest models runs really
want to keep the threat over northern Colorado with just warm, dry
southwest flow over southern Colorado.  So, for now, not looking to
volatile.  Little chance of precipitation with temperatures ranging
from a few degrees above average over the west to 5 and 10 degrees
above average the east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous forecast reasoning
with main meteorological concerns continuing to be temperatures,
pops and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms at
times.

It still appears that a generally dry southwesterly upper flow
pattern in combination with varying degrees of eastern Colorado
lee-side troughing/surface lows will continue over the forecast
district from Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening with
primarily higher terrain isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected during this time-frame.

Then, more active meteorological conditions in the form of
increased shower and thunderstorm activity(some possibly strong to
severe at times) as well as cooler temperatures is anticipated
from Thursday into Friday evening as a combination of relatively
moist north-northeasterly surface flow interacts with a passing
closed upper low.

This closed upper low, initially centered over northwestern
Arizona at 06Z Thursday, shifts into the 4-Corners region by 18Z
Thursday and then moves across southern Colorado into Friday
before shifting east of the forecast district by later
Friday/Friday night.

A return to somewhat drier and warmer meteorological conditions
with basically isolated showers and thunderstorms at times are
projected over the majority of the forecast district during the weekend
with another increase in pops possible by Memorial Day Monday as
zonal to southwesterly upper flow interacts with available
atmospheric moisture, the daily topographic heating cycle and
generally weak upper disturbances at times. Once again, the
potential for some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will
be possible during this time-frame, primarily over eastern
sections of the forecast district.

Finally, warmest maximum temperatures during the longer term are
anticipated Wednesday and then again Saturday and Sunday with
coolest conditions projected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

KALS should see VFR conditions thru the next 24 HRS. KALS should
have gusty S to SW winds Tue afternoon and early evening. KCOS
and KPUB will have the potential for low stratus...mainly between
about 10Z and 15Z Tue...OTRW VFR conditions are expected. KCOS
and KPUB should see gusty S to SW winds in the afternoon and early
evening hours on Tue.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28


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