Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171732
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Low clouds are expected to cover much of the southeast plains this
morning.  These low clouds are expected to dissipate along the I-25
corridor counties and in locations near the eastern mtns between mid
and late morning, but are expected to remain over the far eastern
counties thru the afternoon and into the early evening hours.  Below
average temps can be expected acrs the southeast plains today, with
the coolest readings expected over the far eastern areas, as a
result of significant cloud cover that is expected thu the day.  The
San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River Valley should see high
temps that are just slightly below average.

An upper level disturbance will move into western CO this afternoon
and acrs the state overnight.  This system will aid is the
development of showers and thunderstorms today.  Precip will
probably develop over some of the higher terrain in the late morning
hours, then spreading over the adjacent lower elevations in the
early afternoon.  The NAM keeps the far southeast plains dry until
the evening hours when the upper disturbance begins to affect that
area.  However the HRRR and GFS show isold to scattered pcpn in the
late afternoon hours acrs the far southeast plains.  The ESRL HRRR
shows the potential for some stronger storms in the mid to late
afternoon hours from about the I-25 corridor area from Pueblo
southward around 20Z, then moving eastward.  SPC has a slight risk
of severe weather acrs the southern half of Pueblo county to the NM
border and eastward acrs Las Animas county.  The NAM shows CAPE
values in this area up to 1500 J/Kg, with 0-6km shear values of 40-
50 kts.

Tonight, as the upper level disturbance exits the area to the east,
pcpn chances will decrease or end, generally from west to east, with
all pcpn expected to end before 12Z Mon.  The 00Z run of the NAM
showed the potential for widespread low clouds acrs the southeast
plains again tonight, but the 06Z run has cut back on this coverage,
and now mainly shows this potential over eastern Las Animas, Baca
and portions of Prowers counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Monday and Tuesday, dry, westerly flow will return to the region.
Precipitation will end and temperatures will return to well above
average. While dry, westerly breezes will elevate the fire
danger, winds are not currently expected to reach critical levels.

Wednesday, a dry cold front will drop south through the plains,
returning temperatures to near average levels.  On Thursday, dry
westerly flow will return with temperatures jumping back above
average again.

Friday through the Weekend could bring a pattern change to the area.
Forecast models have a fairly significant fall trough dropping
southeast into the region from the Pacific Northwest.  There are
model differences on the track and intensity of the trough but all
models show it.  This trough should bring some fairly significant
cooling to the region along with fairly good chances for
precipitation.  It is also cold enough for some snow in the
mountains and chilly temperatures everywhere Saturday and Sunday.
We will see how it actually comes through but could be our first
real bout with fall weather this season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Low clouds capable of producing MVFR to even IFR conditions at
times are expected to continue over the KPUB and especially KCOS
taf sites until around noon while KALS maintains VFR conditions in
combination with gusty winds at times.

Then from this afternoon into this evening the KCOS, KPUB and
KALS taf sites have the potential of experiencing showers or
thunderstorms with meteorological conditions expected to
improve after midnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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