Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 280004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
604 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM POPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
THINNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MUCH DRIER
AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS HAS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AND DRYING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE DRIER AIR EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AND SHOULD SEE STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST COVERAGE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF LEE TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT.

PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER BASED STORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE PLUME.

MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STEADY TEMPS OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...COOLING TREND FOR MID WEEK...THEN HEATING UP AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...

FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUES NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING
SOME OF THIS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SE CO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM.  WHILE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT...SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS FOR THE SE PLAINS THROUGH WED MORNING. GOOD COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR WED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.  SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH BROAD GRADIENT TRENDING TOWARDS 30 DEW POINTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS PINNED UP ACROSS
THE SE MTS...SO COULD SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO FOR THIS AREA WED
AFTERNOON SHOULD INSTABILITY BE REALIZED. FARTHER
EAST...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MORE CAPPED...AND FARTHER WEST...LOW
LEVELS LOOK DRIER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS WED AFTERNOON
FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORM THREAT.

TREND IS TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY...AND THIS EVENTUALLY
SHUNTS THE MONSOON PLUME TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS DROP OFF INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE ZERO...BUT WILL TAIL BACK INTO THE
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PROBABILITIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...ENOUGH
MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH TO START INCREASING
POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN...FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP VCTS IN TACT...HOWEVER COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. COOLER AND A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH BREEZY UPSLOPE WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT COS AND PUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.