Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 150517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TODAY WITH
SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE COLD SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. FOG MAY BE
AN ISSUE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S
SNOWMELT COUPLED WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF GROUND FOG FORMATION. WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

BY TOMORROW...AIR FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARM UP.
AFTER HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...READINGS ON
TUESDAY WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...PRETTY MUCH
CHARACTERIZING APRIL IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. LW

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

...MORE SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR WED-THU. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
INTER-MTN REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN ON THROUGH CO WED INTO THU. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON WED...BUT COLDEST
AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT TO ARRIVE...SO COULD SEE TEMPS
REACH THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER
THE PLAINS WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVE WILL FALL AS RAIN...AS SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL FROM 6000 FEET TO AROUND 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SNOW AT KPUB WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT SUSPECT WITH HEAVY ENOUGH
ACTIVITY AND FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT TIMING...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MORE LIKELY TO
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KCOS. FAVORED REGIONS WILL BE THE EASTERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES AS SFC TO H7 WINDS STAY ERLY OR UPSLOPE THROUGH MUCH
OF WED NIGHT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7K FEET COULD AGAIN SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF A FOOT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TARGETING TELLER COUNTY
AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR THE HIGHEST QPF THIS EVENT. EXPECT
WINTER STORM WATCHES TO BE ISSUED SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. TEMPS AT H7 FALL
TO AROUND MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 WED NIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM BUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS STAY GENERALLY UPSLOPE FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING...AND THERE IS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT IN THE 295-
300K LAYER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR ALL OF SERN CO...TO LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING PLAINS. EVEN THE FAR ERN PLAINS
SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP BY THU MORNING.

AFTER A COOL AND UNSETTLED DAY ON THU...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
WITH THE SRN BRANCH OF THIS SYSTEM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO
THE E-NE FROM THE DESERT SW ON SATURDAY. IF THE EC VERIFIES...COULD
SEE A BIT OF A DRYLINE FORM NR THE KS BORDER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STRONG STORM OR TWO SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND
KEEPS THE 40 PLUS DEWPOINTS FARTHER E INTO KS. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE RAIN SHOWERS. WARM CONDITIONS WITH FEWER SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE SNOWMELT THAT OCCURRED ON
MONDAY...ADDING A LITTLE MSTR TO THE AIR...WE COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB. AT KALS THE SAME THING COULD
HAPPEN ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY A BIT OF A BREEZE AT KALS IS KEEPING THE
DEW POINT QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...ONCE THE WINDS GO CALM OR VERY
LIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE VCNTY. CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW CIG DEVELOPING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



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