Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200953
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
353 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Currently...Monsoon moisture continues to stream up across the 4
Corners and into Colorado, and a few showers lingered once again
along the CONTDVD and in Chaffee County this morning. Temps have
remained mild, with most locations in the 60s to around 70 F as of
330 am. Mountain areas have dipped into the 40s this morning.

Today and Tonight...Very similar look to the weather pattern through
the short term, with an upper ridge of high pressure remaining over
the central US. With Colorado being on the western side of the
ridge, the stream of monsoon moisture into the western half of the
state will continue. Convection is expected to fire up once again by
midday over the higher terrain, then slowly move off across the
adjacent plains through the aftn. Thunderstorms will be scattered to
likely over the mts, and isolated elsewhere. It looks like there is
enough dynamics in the upper levels to support isolated convection
even across the far eastern plains later this evening. Another hot
day is forecast, with max temps in the 90s to around 100 F for the
plains, and 80s to around 90 F for the high valleys. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upper high pressure area centered over the southern/central plains
will flatten out and migrate westward this weekend into early next
week.  Meanwhile...southwesterly flow aloft will keep the modest
draw of monsoon moisture across Colorado through the end of the work
week with temperatures remaining above normal.  Both GFS and NAM
suggest thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase
across the plains for Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy
rainfall...small hail...and gusty outflow winds will be the primary
threats...as CAPE and shear remain limited.

Upper trof will move across the northern U.S Rockies Friday night
sending a cold front through the southeast CO plains Saturday
morning. Initially this surge doesn`t look as cool or as moist
immediately behind the front as runs from 24 hours ago...but
should at least bring temperatures down a few degrees for
Saturday. CAPE may end up being too limited for severe
thunderstorm potential on Saturday...but its too soon to be sure
at this point. A little better moisture return in southeast
upslope flow occurs for Sunday and Monday...and with shortwaves
evident in westerly flow aloft. These days could see an upswing in
thunderstorm strength across the southeast mountains and plains
bringing a marginal potential for severe weather...particularly
north of highway 50 where shear will be strongest.

By the middle of next week...upper high center becomes established
over the southwest U.S. which brings drier into the region and
shunts the monsoon plume tap to the south. There will still be
enough moisture for some isolated thunderstorms over the
mountains...but coverage should decrease quite a bit as
temperatures heat up once again. So far...winds look to stay on
the weak side which should limit fire weather concerns in spite of
the drying trend. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main taf sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated
storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain by midday,
then move across KCOS and KALS between 19z and 20z, and across
KPUB by 22z. Potential hazards with any storms that do develop
will be gusty erratic outflow winds to 50 mph, hail up to 1/2 inch
in diameter and periods of heavy rain. Intermittent MVFR
conditions are possible if a heavier storm moves across a taf
site. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE



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