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000
FXUS65 KPUB 141824
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO CLOSER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS. -PJC

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. -PJC

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DRIFTING BACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH
WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS SPREADING EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...WINDS TODAY LOOK LESS THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS AS MID LEVEL FLOW DECREASES AND SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY BACA COUNTY...COULD GET FAIRLY WINDY AHEAD
OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH RH REMAINS JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT. WITH THIN PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A TRINIDAD TO LA JUNTA TO EADS
LINE...WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE 40S AND CAPES PUSH ABOVE 1000
J/KG. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LOW RH AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OVER
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
HRRR/NAM HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WINDIER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR DROPS DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING...THOUGH MODEL SURFACE/BL WINDS NEVER GET MUCH ABOVE 15
KNOTS. MAX TEMPS CONTINUE ON THE HOT SIDE...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION LINGERS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS PAST SUNSET...THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE TSRA END BY MIDNIGHT AS POTENTIAL MCS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEB.
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD GET A SOUTHWESTWARD SHOVE BY DEPARTING
CONVECTION...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHING BACK TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE
AMOUNT AND TYPE OF CONVECTION THAT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION AND WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MODEST ON SATURDAY AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
HINTING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED. MODELS DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
MOVEMENT OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA THROUGH THE
EVENING. LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH WAS 50
MPH...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ACTUALLY FALLING.

MODELS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MOST IMPRESSIVE
DEVELOPING MCS EVENTS THAT PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THIS WOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER
THE STORM SYSTEMS. FOR NOW HAVE WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HOPEFULLY THE REGION SEES SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD STRONG DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO
ALONG WITH INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AREAS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

KALS...ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THREAT OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR KALS IS LOW AND DID NOT PUT ANY IN
TAFS.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS COULD AFFECT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...AND ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. NEARBY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WHICH
MAY IMPACT TAF SITES. CURRENT TAFS HAVE A COLD FRONT PASSING
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. --PGW--


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PGW