Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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968
FXUS65 KPUB 190854
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
254 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Another dry day is in store for southeast and south central CO.
Winds will increase today, with southwest winds in the afternoon of
20 to 30 mph with higher gusts over the plains and high valleys.
The mtns should mostly see winds of 35-45 mph with stronger gusts,
especially in the central mtns.  RH values this afternoon are
expected to be around 10 percent acrs the southeast plains, while
over Teller county and Fremont county will probably be between 10
and 15 percent. These low RH values, combined with strong winds and
dry fuels will lead to high fire danger, and the Red Flag Warning
for these areas still looks warranted.  One other area of concern
will be the lower elevations of Chaffee county where min RH values
this afternoon are forecast to be about 12-15 percent, and the winds
will be fairly strong this afternoon and conditions in this area are
expected to reach Red Flag criteria for several hours. However, the
fire weather zone that encompasses the lower elevations of Chaffee
county includes all of Chaffee and Lake counties, and conditions
over all but the central valley of Chaffee county, are not expected
to reach Red Flag criteria.  Therefore, with the majority of the
zone not reaching criteria, will not issue a warning for fire zone
220.   High temps today will be several degrees above average over
the southeast plains, with readings in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Highs in the high valleys will be around average, with readings in
the 70s.

Winds at the lower elevations will decrease this evening and then a
weak front will move through the southeast plains later tonight. The
high mountain areas will continue to see some windy conditions
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Elevated Fire Danger Thursday then Early Fall Storm Arrives...

Dry, westerly flow will return on Thursday, elevating the fire
danger over the area once again.  A combination of breezy
conditions, low humidities and dry grasses will raise conditions to
near critical levels over parts of the plains.  It doesn`t appear
that conditions will be widespread enough to warrant a highlight at
this time but it will be close in places.  It would be a good day to
postpone outdoor burning or any other activities that could
accidentally start a wildfire.

Friday through Monday, looks interesting.  A large, early fall storm
system is forecast to dig south into the Great Basin on Friday and
remain there through Monday.  It is currently forecast to be in
prime position to bring bouts of severe weather to the plains each
day Friday through Sunday. Then, on Monday, the storm system would
finally swing far enough east to allow a cold front to drop south
through the plains, ending the severe weather threat but bringing
cool, showery weather to the region, including the possibility of
snow showers to the high country. There could also be some snow
showers in the high country over the weekend but mainly just spotty
stuff above 10,000 feet.  On Monday, it looks like the snow showers
could come down to about 8,000 feet and be a little more widespread,
particularly over the eastern mountains. This system is still a few
days away and the details of how it will actually move through are
yet to be resolved.  Stay tuned for updates to the forecast
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Gusty southwest winds can be expected this afternoon at the terminal
forecast sites.  Gusts around 35 kts will be possible at KCOS and
KALS, with gusts of 25-30 kts at KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
COZ221-222-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



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