Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131210
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Update to expire the winter weather hilites across the central
mtns and La Garita mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Currently...

The snow over the higher terrain, especially across the southwest
mountains was gradually winding down as upper level support, which
was over Nevada, was gradually dropping southwest away from the
region.

Over the plains, a band of high cloudiness was noted over the far
eastern plans, otherwise skies were clear over the lower terrain.

Today...

Snow mainly over the southwest sections of the cwa will continue to
decrease this morning as forcing continues to move away from the
region. Best chance of heavier snow will continue over the San Juans
into mid-morning, eventually decreasing to snow showers by early
afternoon. I have allowed the winter weather hilites to end for the
contdvd region at 12 UTC, with the exception of the San Juans where
the winter wx hilites will continue to 15 UTC.

Over the rest of the area, it will warm up today as compared to the
last couple of days. OVer the plains, max temps will reach into the
50s across the I-25 corridor with 60s over the far eastern plains.
Temps could reach to near 70 over Baca county. Valleys should reach
into the 40s and 50s, with 20s in the mtns.

Winds over the higher terrain will slacken a bit this morning, but
will ramp up once again later this afternoon.

Tonight...

Except for some snow showers across the contdvd, especially across
the central mtns, it will be dry across the region. Winds will be
quite gusty across the mtn tops tonight, especially across the
southern mountain region. Breezy westerly flow will occur in the
valleys and this will keep min temps up tonight across the eastern
slopes. Min temps tonight will be in the 30s across most of the
plains with some 20s over Prowers and Kiowa counties. The warmest
temps on the plains will be along the immediate eastern sloes.
Valleys and mtns will be in the teens and 20s. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Wednesday...The upper low pressure system will be located off the
southern CA coast Wed morning, producing strong southwest flow
across the Four Corners and into western CO. This will result in
continued isolated snow showers along the Continental Divide, while
brisk downslope flow across the eastern plains will translate into
dry and warm conditions. The combination of warm and dry along with
occasional wind gusts up to 35 mph will push near-critical fire
weather conditions, especially for the southeast corner of the state
as well as along the CO/NM state line. By midday the low pressure
system will move onshore and begin to merge with an upper
disturbance to the north. Snow will become likely all along the
Continental Divide, as well as scattered snow showers over the
remainder of the mts. Expect high temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s
for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...As the upper trough sweeps across the region
Thu and Fri, look for pcpn chances to spread across all of the mts
as well as the plains as a cold front drops south across the Palmer
Divide late Thu aftn. Latest model runs indicate this front may be a
bit slower than previous thinking, so temps on Thu should be a bit
warmer before the cold air rushes in. Also, latest model solutions
are not as enthusiastic about pcpn chances for the plains Thu night
and Fri, but will continue to monitor for any changes. The upper
trough passes to the east Fri morning, so expect pcpn to come to an
end for all areas by midday. Look for max temps in the 40s for the
high valleys and 50s to lower 60s for the plains on Thu, then 40s
for most locations on Fri.

Saturday...Dry nw flow settles in across the state for Sat, then
becomes westerly ahead of another longwave trough approaching from
the Pacific NW. Temps will rebound into the mid 40s to lower 50s for
the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Big model differences beyond Sat, as the GFS
keeps dry westerly flow aloft for CO as snow remains to the north.
Meanwhile, the EC is indicating another low pressure system dropping
out of the Pacific NW on Sun, bringing a return of snow to the
region Sunday night through Monday. Feel that the EC may be on the
right track, so went against the extended procedure and introduced
isolated to low-end scattered pops for most areas beginning Sun
night. This matches well with WFO BOU. The temperature roller
coaster continues, as afternoon readings will be in the 40s for the
high valleys and 50s to lower 60s for the plains for Sun, then mid
30s and 40s for most locations on Mon. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be from a predominant
southwesterly direction today with light winds at the taf sites
tonight.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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