Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 182141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  AS EXPECTED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL A BIT MORE
EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BROADER SCALE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THROUGH.  AGAIN...NOT
AN OVERLY MOIST OR POWERFUL SYSTEM...SO MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO SPIN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND A LIMITED ABOUT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SO...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOSE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY EVEN HANG ON TO
A SHOWER OR TWO.  THEN...ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND INSTABILITY DOES ITS
THING. COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST A TAD BIT BETTER.  HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THEN...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY.

THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY CENTERED
ALONG A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FAR WESTERN WYOMING LINE AT 12Z
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AXIS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLIGHT
AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF MOISTURE WILL BE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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