Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS WL HAVE IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG REMAINING IN THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WL CONTINUE THRU 12Z MON AND
CONDITIONS WL AGAIN BECOME MVFR OR IFR.  KPUB SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY THRU THE NIGHT.
KALS WL GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME FOG IN THE AREA
THIS MORNING WL BRING IFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z AND THERE WL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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