Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 080521
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1021 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Shallow low level upslope flow over the eastern plains is expected
to continue until later tonight.  The NAM has been showing for about
the last six runs, light snow from along the I-25 corridor to the
eastern mtn slopes this evening and even into the late night hours.
Will increase the chances for pcpn in that area for at least the
first half of the night since there could be some areas that see
around an inch of accumulating.  Will then decrease the chances late
tonight as the upslope weakens. Very cold temperatures will be found
across southeast and south central CO, with lows that are 10 to
about 20 degrees below average.

On Thu, northwest flow aloft will be found across the area with dry
weather expected most area thru the day.  However, there will be a
chance for some isold light pcpn over portions of the Continental
Dvd in the afternoon hours.  Temps on Thu will still be cold with
highs across the southeast plains being 20-25 degrees below average,
and in the San Luis Valley being around 10 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the next 7 days.
The area will be dominated by broad northwesterly flow aloft and
precipitation and temperatures will depend highly on disturbances
embedded in the flow. Models in decent agreement with slight
differences on Sunday between the GFS and ECMWF.

Thursday night through Saturday...northwest flow aloft will lead
to light snow along the Continental Divide through Saturday. Snow
will primarily be focused over the Central Mountains where
orographic lift is favored. Most locations from the La Garita
Range, north will likely see 1 to 2 inches of snow each day.
Strong winds over the mountains will likely lead to areas of
blowing snow. Enhanced mixing over the Plains will help
temperatures warm. Highs on Friday will reach the 40s, while
Saturday will see 50s.

Sunday...models bring a stronger disturbance embedded in the flow
across Colorado on Sunday. This will bring an increase in snow for
the Continental Divide, with light snow spreading into the Eastern
Mountains. Snow could be heavy at times for the Central Mountains,
where several inches of accumulation are expected. The GFS is less
amplified than the ECMWF with this disturbance. The ECMWF would
bring light rain and snow to areas north of Highway 50 Sunday
afternoon and evening. The further north GFS has a few light
showers over the Palmer Divide, but keeps the rest of the Plains
dry. A cold front will drop south across the Plains with highs in
the 30s and 40s.

Monday into Wednesday...broad northwest flow is forecast to
continue into midweek. Persistent light snow will continue along
the Continental Divide, especially the Central Mountains. Minor
daily accumulations are expected. Models do indicate a stronger
disturbance embedded in the flow on Tuesday which will likely
bring a period of heavier snow to the Continental Divide.
Temperatures will moderate in the 40s across the region, with the
coolest day appearing to be Wednesday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1019 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Latest hi res guidance is indicating low cigs will likely last
into at least late morning tomorrow. Although light snow may
continue through the nite, it is expected to be quite light. Winds
at all 3 taf sites will be very light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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