Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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