Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271107
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

...High Fire Danger for the Plains Today...Heavy Snow for the
Continental Divide Tonight...

First piece of the western trough will drop south from OR into the
Great Basin today, then eject eastward across the central Rockies
tonight. Already seeing a slow increase in clouds and light precip
early this morning across wrn CO ahead of the wave, with modest
surface pressure falls over the plains as lee side trough slowly
strengthens. For today, lee trough continues to deepen, with 998 mb
low pressure center in ne CO by 00Z. Tight surface gradient plus 700
mb winds in the 40-50 kt range suggest windy conditions across all
of the plains by afternoon, with gusts in the of 30-40 knots common.
Given very dry air mass in place currently, which models have
struggled to capture so far this morning, suspect dewpoints will
stay low enough for RH to fall below critical 15 percent threshold
over the plains, and will continue the Red Flag Warning for all
areas along and east of I-25 this afternoon. Over the mountains,
snow showers will gradually increase through the day, though
heaviest snowfall will likely occur tonight as stronger dynamic lift
spreads across the region. Winter storm warnings look good for the
Continental Divide this afternoon and overnight, with much lighter
snows spilling into interior valleys and toward the eastern
mountains late. Deep mixing will lead to mild max temps most
locations today, with continued warmth tonight as wind persists,
keeping mins near or slightly above freezing across much of the
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking with a winter storm
moving across the area through Tuesday night and dry, warmer
weather through the end of the week.

Tuesday...a strong upper level disturbance will be moving east
across Colorado on Tuesday and move into the Central Plains during
the overnight hours. Expect moderate to heavy snow to be ongoing
over the mountains on Tuesday. Across the Plains, a cold front is
forecast to drop south during the late morning hours. South of the
front, Huerfano and western Las Animas Counties may see near
critical fire weather conditions. Winds will be gusty, but
humidity values are currently forecast to be around 20 percent. As
for precipitation, followed the NAM 3km. Expect a band of
rain/snow to spread northeast out of the mountains into the Palmer
Divide during the late morning hours. As the front moves south, a
band of rain changing to snow will spread south with the front
through Tuesday evening. Snow accumulations will likely be
confined to the Palmer Divide where an inch or two may be
possible. Expect precipitation to shift southeast during the
overnight hours coming to an end by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday...broad northwest flow behind the upper
storm system will turn to zonal westerly flow through much of the
week. Isolated snow showers over the Central Mountains should
dissipate by Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail
through Saturday once these showers dissipate. Temperatures will
also begin to warm. Temperatures will reach into the 40s and 50s
Wednesday and Thursday, before warming into the 60s to near 70 for
Friday and Saturday.

Sunday...the next upper storm system is forecast to move out of
the Northern Rockies Sunday. This will force strong westerly flow
across Colorado and bring elevated fire weather concerns to the
Eastern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will need to be monitored.
Temperatures will remain warm with upper 60s to lower 70s across
the Plains. Isolated to scattered showers will likely move into
the Central Mountains on Sunday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 347 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. SW winds will
increase across the area this afternoon, with gusts of 30-40 kts
likely at all terminals from 18z-20z until 00z-02z. Over the
mountains, snow showers will begin to increase today, with heavy
snow and LIFR conditions along the Continental Divide late this
afternoon and overnight. Eastern mountains will see showers increase
tonight, with higher peaks obscured after 02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
evening for COZ226>237.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight MST Tuesday
night for COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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