Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 041746
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WORD FAIRLY IS USED SINCE THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF SMALL ISSUES. THE FIRST IS ONGOING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO RIGHT NOW AND IS
TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE STAR VALLEY AND THE SALT AND
WYOMING RANGE. THIS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SWEETWATER COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
NOT LAST THAT LONG OR BE OVERLY HEAVY.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW THERE WILL BE GOOD ALBEDO. HOWEVER...IT IS NOW MARCH AND
WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN MIX
BETTER...SUCH AS NATRONA COUNTY. HOWEVER...IN A PLACE LIKE THE WIND
RIVER BASIN...THE INVERSION MAY HOLD ALL DAY TODAY. THE STRONGER SUN
MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT...BUT WE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON
THE COLD SIDE. IF THEY GET WARMER...MOST PEOPLE SHOULD BE HAPPY.
WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD HAVE BEEN AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT SHOULD TRACK EAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING AS A DRY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WYOMING AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER...BUT STILL HINT AT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
MOUNTAIN POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT/SAT
NIGHT FOR THIS IMPULSE. OTHERWISE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OR FLAT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF
A PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT MOUNTAIN POPS OUT WEST.

AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KCPR AND LATER THIS
EVENING NEAR KCOD. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOCAL BLSN MAY
PARTIALLY OBSCURE TERRAIN VICINITY KPNA-KBPI-KRKS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM KBPI- KPNA-
KRKS...BUT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. KRKS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

WITH A COLD AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT INVERSIONS
IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR SMOKE
DISPERSAL. MIXING HEIGHTS AND SMOKE DISPERSAL SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST EARLY
TODAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...LAVOIE
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





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