Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 151715
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1115 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday night

High pressure will control the weather and bring dry and settled
weather for the most part. However, this is Wyoming and we can
almost never have a completely quiet period. We do have some wind
out there overnight with a bit of a wave passing by to the north,
mainly in the vicinity of Clark and a few of the higher spots where
impacts are minimal. For now, we will let the high wind warning
ride but winds will diminish this morning we the wave moves away.
Otherwise, expect a seasonable finish to the weekend with a good
deal of sunshine and mild temperatures. There will be a gusty breeze
at times across the areas favored by southwesterly flow, mainly from
Rock Springs to Casper, but nothing noteworthy. In addition, there
could be some patchy fog in spots, but with dew point depressions
remaining somewhat large, it should not be too widespread.

Dry weather will continue into the first part of next week. The only
concern will be for potential elevated fire conditions. This would
mainly be across the eastern zones where fuels are still critical
though. We will remain in a southwest flow pattern which will keep a
gusty wind across the wind corridor from Rock Springs through
Casper. With some highs in the the 70s, a few spots could see
relative humidity fall to under 10 percent at times, especially on
Tuesday but possibly Monday as well. This will have to be watched
for possible fire weather highlights. Otherwise, expect above normal
temperatures and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures may be tricky in some of the deeper basins though where
diurnal inversions may set up where winds will remain light and the
weaker October sun will take a while to break them. One last concern
is another possible high wind event near the crossroads of the
universe, AKA Clark with a wave tightening the pressure gradient
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

A digging Pacific trough will approach the West Coast with flow
backing to the southwest, but the forecast area remaining dry with
mild to warm temperatures. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS show the trough
pulling across the West Coast into the Great Basin Thursday
night/Friday, and then across the Rockies Friday night and
Saturday. Precipitation, based on current timing, looks to begin
out west Thursday night spreading east of the Divide Late
Friday/Friday night especially as the cold front pulls across the
region in the Friday night/Saturday. Looks like the precipitation
would end from west to east during the day Saturday. This is a
warmer system than the current one, so it looks the precipitation
will be a valley rain/mountain snow even out west until a change
over occurs with frontal passage Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Issuance

VFR conds will prevail across the area through Monday.
It will be windy from near KRKS to KCPR this afternoon
and again Monday. The KCOD to Clark area will also see a gusty
west wind through tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

Dry and mild to warm weather will continue into the middle of the
week. Today will be warmer than yesterday with plenty of sunshine. A
gusty wind will occur at times, especially from Rock Springs through
Casper. However, relative humidity should remain above critical
levels. Elevated fire conditions look like Monday and especially
Tuesday with warm temperatures, a gusty southwest wind and relative
humidity falling to around 10 percent.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Murrell
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings


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