Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 221703
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1103 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WIND CORRIDOR. BREEZY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL SWEETWATER
COUNTY. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED TODAY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WIND...AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

MODELS VARY ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH A RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HELPING TO COOL TEMPERATURES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SYSTEM.

CONTINUAL PUSHES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN AND LOWERING MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TRACKS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS VARY
ENOUGH THAT IT IMPACTS THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF PRECIP. COULD BE
NORTHERN WY OR CENTRAL WY...WILL WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING YET LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH WED PM. THE GFS MODEL IS QUICK TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY
THURSDAY PM AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THE WEATHER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH WITH LESS
IMPACT TO OUR AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSER TO THE GFS MODEL.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURS PM AND THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST PLACES NEXT FRIDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS STORM SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...A COOL WEEK EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL...40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 20Z IN THE VCNTY OF THE DIVIDE...MAINLY ALONG A VCNTY KJAC-
KCOD ROUTE AND ALSO ISOLD TSRA/SHRA MAY DEVELOP OFF THE UINTA
RANGE AND MOVE NORTH BTWN KEVW-KRKS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY AND WEST OF
THE DIVIDE 08Z- 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WILL SEE
GUSTY WIND TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY
INCREASE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED TODAY AS WINDS COULD TAKE CONTROL OF A BURN AND TAKE IT
OUTSIDE ITS PLANNED PERIMETER. GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



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