Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 282135
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
335 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A DECENT PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO
ARRIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS WELL UNDER THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER...ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWING SOME
MUCH DRIER AIR PRESSING INTO THE AREA OUT OF MONTANA. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE CUT POPS AND QPF A BIT FOR LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE
WATERS DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE BUT ALSO DROPS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO A SIMILAR AREA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT READY TO GO ALL THE WAY AS A COMPROMISE WE HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION FOR AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT KEPT IT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HERE WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING. WE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS TO WESTERN
WYOMING. CONTINUITY SHOWED THIS FAIRLY WELL SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS DRIER. WE ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN SOME AREAS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE MOST OF THE TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHAT I CALL A SHAMPOO BOTTLE
INSTRUCTION FORECAST. IN OTHER WORDS...WASH...RINSE...REPEAT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN...ACCORDING TO JOHNNY CASH OR SOCIAL
DISTORTION DEPENDING ON YOUR AGE AND MUSICAL TASTE...THE RING OF
FIRE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
PAST DAY 3 IS LIKE TYING TO HERD CATS AND AS A RESULT PINPOINTING A
MORE ACTIVE DAY IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. AT THIS POINT WE KEPT THINGS
GENERIC AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY RETURNING AROUND 10Z. BY 12Z...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE THREAT OF STORM ACTIVITY WITH
ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WIND WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
WESTERN AVIATION PASSES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE OF THE MOUNTAIN BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TURBULENCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A LULL ANTICIPATED
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED DAYTIME IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





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