547
FXUS65 KRIW 140455
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1055 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Series of weak shortwaves through Thursday brings sporadic
  rain showers/thunderstorms and near average temperatures.

- Warming trend by week`s end into the weekend with any shower
  activity isolated to the higher terrain west of the Divide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

IR shows a pretty meridional pattern with weak ridging to the
east and a weak shortwave to the west. Sporadic rain showers
and a couple isolated thunderstorms can be had this Monday
afternoon for much of the northern half of the CWA east of the
Divide. Nothing severe nor significant but a couple lightning
strikes expected. As the main trough pushes through supporting a
weak cold front for Tuesday, expect more widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms much of the day. Cooler temperatures
behind the aforementioned front back to near average for this
time of year. There is not really much of an impact with this
system being very progressive and not much instability nor PVA
to work with. Divergence aloft is weak as well being a more
flattened meridional pattern. Becoming less active Wednesday as
the trough pushes east with ridging building in from the
southwest by week`s end.

Warming trend and mainly dry conditions expected for Friday and
over the weekend into the long term. Temperatures back to above
average for this time of year with below average precipitation.
Any activity will be limited to higher terrain west of the
Divide with a more zonal westerly upper level flow. There could
be some ripples over time through the pattern but overall, it
looks to be quite stagnant through the rest of the month. CPC
outlooks concur as well. Fire weather could come to the
forefront as fuels dry out with the warming trend this weekend
as winds increase to some weaker gusts but enough to warrant to
be watched going forward with nothing else really to be of
significance at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

A couple of shortwaves will keep an active TAF period across the
area. In the short term, there will be some isolated convection
through the overnight hours moving from west to east. Western and
then northern terminals will have the best chance at brief impacts
through the morning. Conditions are expected to remain
predominantly VFR, though brief periods of MVFR ceilings are
possible with any storm that moves over terminals. The next wave
arrives by late morning and will set off another round of
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon. All terminals
other than KRKS have at least brief mention of convection for
the afternoon. The main concern with this activity will be brief
MVFR ceilings and strong wind. There is some guidance hinting
at bringing this farther south to KRKS around 00Z Wednesday, but
confidence is not high enough to include this for now.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Myers