000
FXUS65 KRIW 122019
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
219 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy conditions continue Saturday and Sunday, with
  near record highs.

- Elevated fire weather concerns across central and southern WY
  this weekend due to winds and low humidity levels.

- Next weather system brings cooler conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

H5 ridging continues to hold most of the region warm and dry
today and into the weekend. H7 temps running 5 to 7C bringing
most areas well into the 60s and low 70s. Temps aloft remain
fairly steady through Sunday, so continued warm temps in the 60s
and 70s, while humidity levels fall to 15 to 20 percent. This
along with gusty southwest winds will keep an elevated threat
for fire weather, mainly in central WY where fuels are the
driest.

Models continue to have some trouble pinning down larger
amplitude storms during the springtime. Models are having a
better time resolving the next low moving from off the
California coast and moving across the Four Corners region.
Models have backed off the initial push ahead of this system,
limiting any precip to the western mountains, and keeping things
light. The axis of this system is across the state on Monday,
and is close enough to bring better chances for precip, but
amounts still remain lighter.

There is a good chance for the next system to impact the region
Tuesday through Thursday, but significant model differences are
keeping confidence in the exact forecast lower. Tuesday should
see the next push of moisture and cooler air at the leading edge
of the next Canadian trough. Models are more confident in this
trough taking a more southeasterly track into the Northern
Plains, with a deflecting shot across WY. This would still bring
colder temperatures across the state, with temps falling back
below normal for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A weak shortwave will pass over the region today. Breezy southwest
winds are expected at all terminals through the afternoon with gusts
15 to 25 mph depending on the terminal. There may be some FEW to SCT
cumulus develop near FL080 as a result of this shortwave as well.
These cumulus could create some isolated to widely scattered virga
showers, but no impacts are expected at or in the vicinity of any
terminals. Winds decrease overnight to mostly light drainage flows.
Southwest winds will begin to increase again Saturday morning across
the region.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Hensley