Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 150800
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
200 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday night

High pressure will control the weather and bring dry and settled
weather for the most part. However, this is Wyoming and we can
almost never have a completely quiet period. We do have some wind
out there overnight with a bit of a wave passing by to the north,
mainly in the vicinity of Clark and a few of the higher spots where
impacts are minimal. For now, we will let the high wind warning
ride but winds will diminish this morning we the wave moves away.
Otherwise, expect a seasonable finish to the weekend with a good
deal of sunshine and mild temperatures. There will be a gusty breeze
at times across the areas favored by southwesterly flow, mainly from
Rock Springs to Casper, but nothing noteworthy. In addition, there
could be some patchy fog in spots, but with dew point depressions
remaining somewhat large, it should not be too widespread.

Dry weather will continue into the first part of next week. The only
concern will be for potential elevated fire conditions. This would
mainly be across the eastern zones where fuels are still critical
though. We will remain in a southwest flow pattern which will keep a
gusty wind across the wind corridor from Rock Springs through
Casper. With some highs in the the 70s, a few spots could see
relative humidity fall to under 10 percent at times, especially on
Tuesday but possibly Monday as well. This will have to be watched
for possible fire weather highlights. Otherwise, expect above normal
temperatures and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures may be tricky in some of the deeper basins though where
diurnal inversions may set up where winds will remain light and the
weaker October sun will take a while to break them. One last concern
is another possible high wind event near the crossroads of the
universe, AKA Clark with a wave tightening the pressure gradient
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Dry with mild to warm temperatures are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. A trough is expected to push into the entire West Coast
Thursday night into the Intermountain West Friday, and then
across the Rockies Friday night into early Saturday. Medium range
models hint at some splitting of this trough pulls across the
Intermountain West/Rockies. This will of course have impact on
the overall impact of the system, but overall a good shot of
precipitation Friday into Friday night with some activity
spreading east of the Divide Friday night/early Saturday with the
cold front. This is a warmer system than the current one, so it
looks the precipitation will be a valley rain/mountain snow even
out west until a change over occurs with frontal passage Friday
night. The precipitation type east of the Divide could remain just
rain. Improving conditions (based on current timing) are expected
from west to east Saturday with dry conditions on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z Issuance

Between KCOD and Clark, a west wind of 30 to 40 knots, with gusts in
in excess of 55 knots, is expected through 12z. LLWS is also likely
in this area. The wind should decrease by 13Z in these areas.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the region through
tonight. A gusty wind will occur at KCPR airport today through 00Z,
then decrease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

Dry and mild to warm weather will continue into the middle of the
week. Today will be warmer than yesterday with plenty of sunshine. A
gusty wind will occur at times, especially from Rock Springs through
Casper. However, relative humidity should remain above critical
levels. Elevated fire conditions look like Monday and especially
Tuesday with warm temperatures, a gusty southwest wind and relative
humidity falling to around 10 percent.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Murrell
AVIATION...Ross
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings


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