Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 292117
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...SENDING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE DOES EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CU FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
TODAY...BUT LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS REMAIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
MORNING RHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH MAX RH VALUES IN THE
30S TO 50S EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH 50S TO LOW 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING VERY DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...PUTTING HIGH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON CU COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED
CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS
MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST
OF OUR AREA. GRADUALLY WITH TIME...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH AIDING IN AT LEAST A FEW
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COOL FRONT NEAR IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY MAY HELP A FEW STORMS
TO FORM/MOVE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM THE S AND SW INTO OUR WEST AND NORTH AIDING
IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WILL ALSO LIKELY
MOVE OFF THE UINTAS INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD
HIGH BASED STORM ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RH`S. ANY
TSTMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH HIGH BASES AND BIG TEMP/DP SPREADS. NEW ECMWF DEVELOPS A
POSSIBLE ELY WAVE OVER AZ SATURDAY EVENING THAT GRADUALLY ROTATES
AROUND THE MONSOONAL HIGH AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WYO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GEM ALSO HAS
A DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY OVER AZ AND GENERALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER A DISTURBANCE
WILL FORM IN THE DESERT SW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH SO STICKING
WITH CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW AS IT
IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO WATCH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
MONSOONAL HIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION FOR TONIGHT. A VIRTUAL COPY OF TODAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TOMORROW...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND A FEW MID
LEVEL CU POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH VALUES IN THE 30-50
SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND 50S TO LOW 70S
WEST...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN


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