Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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AXUS75 KRIW 210244
DGTRIW
WYC003-013-017-019-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-230245-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
844 PM MDT THU OCT 20 2016

...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ELIMINATED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WYOMING SINCE THE END OF SUMMER...

SYNOPSIS...

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON OCTOBER 20TH SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING SINCE LATE SUMMER.
MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND MOST OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AT THE END OF AUGUST HAD
BEEN ELIMINATED FOR THE MOST PART IN MID-OCTOBER. THE BIGHORN
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR SEPTEMBER OF 2.75 INCHES WAS THE
11TH WETTEST ON 123 YEARS OF RECORD (SINCE 1895). THE POWDER AND
TONGUE RIVER BASINS HAD THEIR 4TH WETTEST SEPTEMBER IN 123 YEARS
WITH A BASIN-WIDE AVERAGE OF 2.86 INCHES.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER THE BEARTOOTH PASS
AREA WHILE MOST OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN HAD IMPROVED FROM MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...TO
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF AUTUMN. THE
ONLY AREA IN WYOMING TO SEE WORSENING CONDITIONS SINCE SEPTEMBER
20TH WAS NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY WHICH IS NOW ABNORMALLY DRY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

28 DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ACROSS WYOMING SHOWED NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WERE ISOLATED THROUGHOUT THE STATE.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...

SEVERAL WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING SEPTEMBER EXTINGUISHED
THE LARGE WILDFIRES THAT ERUPTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING.
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK HAD 22 FIRES THAT BURNED MORE THAN
62,000 ACRES DURING THE SUMMER. SEVERAL WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ALONG WITH LONGER NIGHTS AND SHORTER DAYS ALSO RESULTED IN
FUELS MOISTENING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...UNLIKELY TO CARRY
LARGE FIRES. HOWEVER...MOST OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTY`S FUELS
REMAINED CLASSIFIED AS CRITICAL INTO MID-OCTOBER.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

BELOW ARE THE CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR THE
2015-16 WATER YEAR.

NOTE: BASIN-WIDE PERCENT OF AVERAGES ARE BASED ON 20TH CENTURY
(1901-2000) AVERAGES. SPECIFIC LOCATIONS PERCENT OF AVERAGES ARE
BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS.

LOCATION               PRECIPITATION       % OF AVERAGE
AND DROUGHT            (INCHES)
CONDITION              OCT 2015-SEP 2016
--------               -----------------    ---------

YELLOWSTONE BASIN AVG.    23.77                86
0 OLD FAITHFUL            20.44                81

SNAKE BASIN AVG.          30.95                93
  AFTON                   17.65                97
  MOOSE                   20.67                95

GREEN AND BEAR BASIN AVG. 15.30               112
  BIG PINEY AIRPORT       10.28               159
0 EVANSTON AIRPORT         6.71                55
  FOSSIL BUTTE N.M.       14.44               131
  GREEN RIVER             15.32               184
  ROCK SPRINGS (FIRE DP)  14.94               155

BIGHORN BASIN AVG.        14.93                99
0 CODY                    12.33               117
0 GREYBULL AIRPORT         6.14                82
0 POWELL FIELD STATION     6.04                89
  THERMOPOLIS             14.03               120
  WORLAND AIRPORT          7.73               115

POWDER/TONGUE BASIN AVG.  14.40                94
  BUFFALO AIRPORT         10.81                80
  KAYCEE                  11.59                94
  SHERIDAN AIRPORT        15.37               109

LOWER PLATTE BASIN AVG    16.51               111
  CASPER AIRPORT          16.42               131
  CHEYENNE AIRPORT        17.49               110

WIND RIVER BASIN AVG.     16.97               114
  DUBOIS                  11.18               113
  LANDER AIRPORT          20.48               162
  RIVERTON AIRPORT        13.11               139
  RIVERTON (DOWNTOWN)     13.47               160

UPPER PLATTE BASIN AVG.   14.00               106
  JEFFREY CITY            12.12               120
-------------------------------------------------
STATEWIDE AVERAGE         16.26               102

--------------------------------------------
| STATION`S DROUGHT INTENSITY (LEFT COLUMN):|
| 3 - LOCATION IN EXTREME DROUGHT/D3/       |
| 2 - LOCATION IN SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/       |
| 1 - LOCATION IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/     |
| 0 - LOCATION ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/          |
|   - NONE                                  |
|                                           |
| (M) MISSING PRECIPITATION DATA IN RECORD  |
--------------------------------------------

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

THE NOVEMBER OUTLOOK FOR WYOMING SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
STATE. THE NOVEMBER OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION SHOWS AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WYOMING WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

THE NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY OUTLOOK FOR WYOMING SHOWS AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SWEETWATER...UINTA AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION SHOWS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING.

THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE LIKELY
TO END OR IMPROVE BY THE END OF FEBRUARY IN THE REMAINING AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED WITH MODERATE OR
SEVERE DROUGHT.

LA NINA WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP
(APPROXIMATELY 70 PERCENT CHANCE) DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
FALL 2016 AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO PERSIST DURING WINTER 2016-17.
FOR WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE WINTER OUTLOOK (DEC-
FEB)...WEIGHTED TOWARD THIS LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA
CONDITIONS...FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF MONTANA INTO NORTHERN YELLOWSTONE
NATIONAL PARK AND THE BEARTOOTH PASS AREA.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR STORAGES ACROSS WYOMING WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONDITION FOR SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER. NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS
WERE PALISADES RESERVOIR (6 PERCENT FULL) AND GLENDO RESERVOIR (34
PERCENT FULL).

RESERVOIR DATA FOR OCTOBER 20TH -

RESERVOIR                  PERCENT FULL

CENTRAL WYOMING
   BOYSEN                      86.3
   BUFFALO BILL                65.0
   BULL LAKE                   16.7
   PATHFINDER                  82.9

UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN
   BIG SANDY                   41.0
   FONTENELLE                  65.0
   FLAMING GORGE               85.0

UPPER SNAKE RIVER BASIN
   GRASSY LAKE                 82.0
   JACKSON LAKE                54.0

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

TO REPORT EFFECTS OF THE DROUGHT IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE GO TO THE
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER AT...

HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

...AND CLICK ON SUBMIT A REPORT.

INFORMATION FOR THE MEDIA MAY BE FOUND AT...

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/NEWSOUTREACH/INFORMATIONFORMEDIA.ASPX

NWS RIVERTON DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RIW/DROUGHT

WIND RIVER INDIAN RESERVATION AND SURROUNDING AREA CLIMATE AND
DROUGHT SUMMARIES...

HTTP://REVAMPCLIMATE.COLOSTATE.EDU/REVAMP/PROJECT/WIND-RIVER-
DROUGHT-PREPAREDNESS

USGS WYOMING DROUGHT WATCH...
HTTP://WY.WATER.USGS.GOV/PROJECTS/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION...

NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/...
HTTP://WWW.WATER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RIW

NRCS WYOMING...HTTP://WWW.WY.NRCS.USDA.GOV

USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USBR...HTTP://WWW.USBR.GOV/

WATER RESOURCE DATA SYSTEM (WRDS)...HTTP://WWW.WRDS.UWYO.EDU

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

ARTHUR MEUNIER
CLIMATE/DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
12744 WEST US HIGHWAY 26
RIVERTON, WY  82501
TELEPHONE...307-857-3898
............800-211-1448
EMAIL...ARTHUR.MEUNIER@NOAA.GOV

$$



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