Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 230937
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAVA MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
337 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1930 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...VERY LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY
WIND. THE WIND WILL DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UP THE VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE FIRE AREA. THIS WILL
RAISE HUMIDITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1000.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER 1000.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH AFTER 1000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD BY 1100. INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY 1300.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN DECREASING TO 6 TO
                    9 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
                    WIND BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 MPH
                    AFTER 300 AM.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 11 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN DECREASING TO 7 TO 11
                    MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
                    WIND BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER 300 AM.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...
                    DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
                    WIND BECOMING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 300 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR AFTER SUNSET...THEN BECOMING
                    POOR BY 0300.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. INCREASING
                    CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 MPH AFTER 1200.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 11 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AT 10 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO FAIR BY 1200. BECOMING GOOD
                    BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS 33 TO 37. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS 54 TO 58. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS 32 TO 36. HIGHS 58 TO 62. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...SLAGOWSKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160822.LAVAM.01/RIW



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