Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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026
FNUS75 KRIW 161200
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek RX...WYBTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
600 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move across the area in the mid to
late afternoon today. Isolated thunderstorms will develop a few
hours ahead and along the cold front. Gusty north to northwest
wind will follow the cold front, but winds will be more erratic
with any storms. Most shower and thunderstorm activity will be out
of the area after sunset. On Monday, moisture and slight
instability from the southwest will bring isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms into the area.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Meunier

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) in the morning. Becoming mostly
                    cloudy (70-80 percent) in the afternoon with isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms developing by 2 pm.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........21-24 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley or east 5-9 mph, becoming southwest
                    in the early afternoon, then shifting from the
                    north northwest around 15 mph with gusts 25 to
                    30 mph in the mid to late afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes.
Chc of wetting rain.5 percent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL until 1200, then 12100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
                    west 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 2100 with Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms. Becoming mostly clear after midnight.
Min temperature.....52-55.
Max humidity........58-61 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 10 mph with gusts 15 to 20 mph early
                    evening, becoming downslope/downvalley 4-7
                    mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the early evening.
Ridge top winds.....North 10 to 15 mph in the early evening, becoming
                    west overnight.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2100, then No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.5 percent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL until 2400, then 500 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph early evening, becoming
                    northwest 5 to 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor after midnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) in the morning. Mostly
                    cloudy (70-80 percent) with isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....76-79.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph, then
                    becoming west 10 to 15 mph with gusts
                    20 to 25 mph in the mid to late afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....East around 10 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 20 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes.
Chc of wetting rain.5 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL until 1200, then 11800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....southeast 5 to 10 mph until 0900, shifting
                    to the southwest around 20 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Lows in the lower 50s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds generally
less than 10 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Meunier
Requested by...TIDC
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1712801.0/RIW
.EMAIL grte_dispatch@nps.gov



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