Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 232124
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR POSEY CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
324 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1435 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT...WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH AND POISED TO COME
THROUGH NORTHERN WYOMING LATER THIS EVENING...THEN THROUGH THE FIRE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER INCREASE FOR PRECIPITATION
BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO COME AROUND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE
LESS CLOUD AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
AGAIN IN/NEAR THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY TO VARIABLE 5-10 MPH. GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (29200-56800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT)...PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30 TO 40 PERCENT) LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 14 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (9700
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10
                    TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 16 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (22500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (117100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...KUGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160823.POSEY.01/RIW



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