Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 201610
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST SLOPE BIGHORN SLASH PILE BURN...BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
910 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 MST ON NOVEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH A WEAK
WAVE MAY BRING A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG...AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW
TO KEEP SMOKE DISPERSAL LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER WINTER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE BURN SITE SATURDAY...
HELPING TO INCREASE WIND SPEED AND MIXING HEIGHTS. SMOKE DISPERSAL
WILL SEE A BRIEF JUMP REACHING POTENTIALLY TO THE GOOD LEVEL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INITIAL EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS COLD FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL MOVE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....31-35.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15200-24100 KNOT-FT). SMOKE DISPERSAL
                    WILL BE AS LOW AS 10600 KNOT-FT AT 0500...
                    INCREASING TO APPROXIMATELY 24000 KNOT-FT
                    BY 1400.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-18.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-72 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    THE SOUTHWEST BY 0300.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 2
                    AFTER 2000.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11700-20900 KNOT-FT). SIGNIFICANTLY
                    DECREASING MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SMOKE
                    DISPERSAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
                    WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) AFTER 1000.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-35.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...INCREASING TO 3 OR
                    VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (24300-31600 KNOT-FT) THEN INCREASING TO
                    FAIR TO GOOD (40000-66000) AFTER 1100.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 13. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. A DECREASE IN TRANSPORT WIND AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CREATE A SMOKE DISPERSAL OF POOR AFTER 2000.

.SUNDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 7.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL MATTMILLER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141120.WESTS.01/RIW





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