Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 171010
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR COTTONWOOD II...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
410 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECASTED MIN RH IN THIS SPOT IS BASED MORE TOWARDS THE B-T
PORTABLE #3 RAWS NEAR THE FIRE SITE...THAN THE OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED
FROM THE SPOT REQUEST. THE B-T PORTABLE #3 RAWS AND OTHER
OBSERVATIONS SITES IN THE AREA MEASURED RH IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE AT 1 PM THURSDAY...WHILE THE ONSITE OBSERVATION WAS 68
PERCENT AT THE SAME TIME. IF THERE IS A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AT THE BURN AREA...I WOULD EXPECT A MIN RH IN THE 35-40 PERCENT
RANGE TODAY...THAN THE 25 PERCENT FORECASTED BELOW.

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WILL
OCCUR OVER THE BURN SITE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MIGHT ONLY GLANCE WESTERN WYOMING BRINGING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON (70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 0-4 MPH
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    5 MPH BY 11 AM...THEN WEST AROUND 10 MPH
                    BY 3 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS (70-80 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-3 MPH
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 0-4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    3-6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10-15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD (60200 KNOT-FT) BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...LANCASTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141017.COTTO.01/RIW





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