Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 180514
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAVA MTN...CONNELL IMT2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1114 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2238 MDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPPING EASTWARD AND MONSOONAL FLOW SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...IT WILL BE MAINLY WARM AND DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH BUT WITH
A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION/SHOWERS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY WITH CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
PERIODS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO COULD FORM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
HIGHER SOUTHERN ABSAROKAS...WHICH COULD PUSH A GUSTY BRIEF ERRATIC
WIND THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 18
TO 25 PERCENT EACH DAY AND HAINES VALUES FOR INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY
HOVER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
                    GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25 PERCENT) BECOMING CLEAR
                    (5-15 PERCENT). LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE
                    FOR A SHOWER EARLY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH EARLY.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THAN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(25 PERCENT). LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE
                    FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 9
                    TO 13 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLEAR OR CLEARING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...ROB CARLIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160717.LAVAM.01/RIW



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