Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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134
FNUS75 KRIW 182114
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Ryegrass Rx...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
314 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry under northwest flow aloft and west to northwest flow
at the surface on Monday/Monday night. Relatively light west
to northwest wind will see occasional afternoon gusts to around
15 mph in the afternoon when the atmosphere mixes out. Seasonally
warm during the day...cool Monday night. Tuesday will start off
in similar fashion to that on Monday. However, an upper level
disturbance will move through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon
and early evening which could initiate a few showers/thunderstorms...
mostly of the high based variety with little or modest rainfall,
some lightning and gusty winds. These showers/storms should
dissipate quickly in the evening.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Braun

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-20 percent).
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming west northwest
                    7 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Occasional gusts
                    up to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL until 1200, then 7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........87-92 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph and occasionally
                    gusty early in the evening becoming
                    downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL until 2400, then 500 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good decreasing to poor after midnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent) becoming partly...to
                    (30 to 60 percent)...mostly cloudy (30-80 percent)
                    near showers or thunderstorms. Isolated to widely
                    scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....79-82.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming west 8 to 13
                    mph with occasional gusts to around 20 mph in the
                    afternoon...to around 40 mph near stronger showers
                    or a thunderstorm.
Ridge top winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 becoming 2 in the afternoon. 1 to 8 lightning
                    strikes.
Chc of wetting rain.10 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL until 1200, then 10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the west
                    around 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early.
Lows in the mid 40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 70s. Winds generally
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Braun
Requested by...Timothy Sherwin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711240.0/RIW
.EMAIL tsherwin@blm.gov



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