Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 141007
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
407 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0500 MDT on September 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
Approaching storm system will bring an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms as the day wears on. Widespread showers with some embedded
thunder will continue tonight through Friday with lowering snow levels.
A period of snow is possible on the fire by Friday night but the bigger
thing will be the widespread wetting rains with a decent chance of half
an inch or more across the entire fire area by Saturday. Otherwise,
expect windy conditions at times through Friday, especially over the
ridges. Temperatures will be falling significantly today into Friday.
Most of the significant snow will fall north of the fire area and higher
in elevation.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Skrbac

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the morning, then numerous rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....61-64.
Min humidity........41-44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Ridge top winds.....West to southwest wind increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    with gusts to 35 mph.
LAL.................2.
Chc of wetting rain.40 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL until 1200, then 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West to southwest around 16 mph increasing to 22 to
                    27 mph in the late morning through afternoon, then
                    becoming west around 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely with a slight
                    chance of a thunderstorm.
Min temperature.....40-43.
Max humidity........93-96 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph Gusts up to 15 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 18 to 28 mph.
LAL.................2.
Chc of wetting rain.80 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL until 2400, then 2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good early then decreasing to Fair.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain likely in the
                    morning, then numerous rain showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....46-49.
Min humidity........66-69 percent.
20-foot winds.......West 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West around 20 to 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.80 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance
of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs
in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Skrbac
Requested by...Scott Brownlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1715071.16/RIW
.EMAIL Polecreek2017@gmail.com


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