Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 181309
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY FIRE...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
709 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0647 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG WEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
IN THE FLOW WILL BRING MARGINAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE FIRE AREA TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AROUND 10:30 AM MDT THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH JACKSON HOLE BECOMING QUITE
GUSTY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20 PERCENTS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW AFTER 22:00 PM MDT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (134900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING MIXING WITH
                    OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-79 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (67300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (13900
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 26
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (141900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS SOUTHWEST
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
COOLER. CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS IVES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160918.BERRY.01/RIW



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