Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 271950
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HATCHERY FIRE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
150 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1309 MDT ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BUILDING ALONG THE TOP OF THE BIGHORNS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LESSER CHANCE ON THE WEST SLOPE INITIALLY. HOWEVER
...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THEM ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT) UNTIL 1500L THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600L.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR 0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT (140000-160000 KNOT-FT) IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-67 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL IN THE EVENING THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EARLY THEN POOR (7500-67500 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    0900L. STORMS BUILDING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
                    THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0900...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (39000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (128000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...HATCHERY FIRE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160727.HATCH.01/RIW


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