Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 221508
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Currant Creek Pile RX...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
908 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Approaching storm system is already aiding in showers in the area and these will just increase
today along with the risk of afternoon thunderstorms. Strong southwest winds will also develop
after noon and could become quite gusty with 40 mph wind gusts. Rain showers and isolated evening
thunderstorms are expected tonight with some rain and snow mix late.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Skrbac

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....53-57.
Min humidity........29-32 percent.
20-foot winds.......Variable 6-12 mph through noon then becoming southwest 20 to
                    30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....East to northeast around 10 mph increasing to southwest 25
                    to 30 mph in the afternoon with gusts around 40 mph.
LAL.................0 until noon then 1.
Chc of wetting rain.25 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 FT AGL gradually increasing to 3500-4000 ft AGL in the late afternoon.
Transport winds.....Variable 8-12 mph increasing to southwest at 25 to 30 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10,000 kt/ft) this morning then becoming very good (around 100,000 kt/ft) in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Numerous showers overnight with some
                    rain and snow mixed after midnight.
Min temperature.....35-38.
Max humidity........87-90 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 18 to 28 mph and gusty early in the
                    evening becoming downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 25-30 mph early then shifting to the west or northwest 6-12 mph early in the morning.
LAL.................1 until 2200L then 0.
Chc of wetting rain.50 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 feet AGL early then decreasing to around 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph early in the evening then decreasing to 10 to 15 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair early (around 50,000 kt-ft) then Poor (5000-7500 kt-ft).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Cloudy. Showers and snow showers likely in the evening, then
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s.
Northwest winds around 11 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and snow showers. Lows in
the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Skrbac
Requested by...Bradley Weller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704915.0/RIW
.EMAIL bweller@blm.gov


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