986
FNUS75 KRIW 061620
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Rock Tunp Pile Burn...Bureau of Land Management BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1020 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of low pressure over northeast Wyoming late Monday
morning will spin slowly northeast through Tuesday. This low
pressure system eventually spins back south through Wyoming Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Overall, the weather will be cooler than
normal, windy, and unsettled through midweek. Westerly wind picks-up
between 0800 and 1000 Tuesday and steadily increases into the
afternoon. Speeds should be a tad less than those seen today
(Monday). The best chance for any snow accumulation will be late
tonight through the day Tuesday. However, the flow is not favorable
for much snowfall.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with a chance of snow showers.
CWR.................20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 33.
Min humidity........62-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West wind 17 to 26 mph with gusts around 35 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......West 35 to 40 mph.
Mixing height.......Around 3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  94  94  92  90  88  86  83
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70  70  0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  30  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............29  29  30  30  31  32  32  33
RH..............80  78  77  75  73  71  69  65
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..17  22  26  26  24  24  24  24
20 FT wind gust.26  33  38  38  36  36  37  36
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..35  35  40  40  40  40  40  40
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.33  33  38  38  38  39  39  39
SDspl kt-ft/100065  65  102 102 102 113 113 113

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) with a chance
                    of snow. Snow becoming likely after 0300.
CWR.................0 percent until midnight, then increasing
                    to 20 percent by sunrise.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent, then becoming 60 percent after 0300.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 23.
Max humidity........88-91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West wind 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph until 1900, then gradually decreasing to
                    10 to 15 mph by 2100. Occasional gusts around
                    20 mph after 2100.
Ridgetop wind.......West 25 to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL until 1900, then decreasing to
                    less than 1000 ft AGL by 2200.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then becoming Poor by 2200.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  72  63  54  62  69  77  77  83  89  86  82
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  20  20  40  50  60  60  60
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............33  32  32  31  30  29  28  27  26  26  25  24
RH..............62  64  65  67  72  77  82  85  86  88  89  90
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..22  17  13  8   7   7   8   11  10  12  14  16
20 FT wind gust.33  26  19  13  11  11  12  16  14  17  19  22
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..35  35  35  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.8 3.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.38  38  38  23  23  23  20  20  20  22  22  22
SDspl kt-ft/1000127 127 127 20  20  20  13  13  13  18  18  18

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) with snow
                    increasing through the day.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 30.
Min humidity........57-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West wind 10 to 15 mph, increasing between 0800
                    and 1000 to 17 to 26 mph with gusts around 32 mph.
                    Wind increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts around
                    36 mph during the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West 25 to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......Less than 1000 ft AGL until 0800, then gradually
                    increasing to 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then becoming Good around 1200,
                    then increasing to Very Good after 1400.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  77  75  73  75  77  79  77  75  73  74  76
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  60  60  50  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............23  24  25  26  26  26  26  27  27  28  28  27
RH..............91  87  83  79  74  68  63  61  59  57  59  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..17  18  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  27  25
20 FT wind gust.25  26  29  30  31  32  33  35  36  38  38  35
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..30  30  30  30  30  30  35  35  35  35  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  23  23  25  25  25  25  27  27  27  27  27
SDspl kt-ft/100034  34  34  101 101 101 110 130 135 135 135 135

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s.
West wind 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 30s. Lows in the upper 20s.
West wind around 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the daylight hours. Highs in the mid 40s.
Lows in the mid 20s. Northerly wind around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Warmer. Highs
in the lower 50s. Lows in the upper 20s. East wind around
10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...CNJ
Requested by...Jeffrey Priebe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413263.0/RIW
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpriebe@blm.gov