Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 232107
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIN LAKES...WY-PAX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1427 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WYOMING TODAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT
WELL NORTH AND POISED TO COME THROUGH THE FIRE AREA MAINLY
LATER THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST NORTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH CLOUDS STARTING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM INITIATION TO THE EAST AT
20 TO 25 MPH WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 8000 FEET
OR LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER INCREASE FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME AROUND
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUD
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AGAIN
IN/NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE 25 PERCENT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY TO NORTHEAST 6-11 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (117800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-69 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (14900-63000 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 TO
                    11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.13 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    16 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (75000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...RICKY COX
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160823.TWINL.01/RIW



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