Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 151000
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
400 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0500 MDT on September 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
More rain is expected on the fire today with cold temperatures and high
rh`s. The rain (and possibly snow) showers will decrease this evening
much lighter amounts of precipitation expected after today. It will remain
cool through Saturday with a slight chance of showers (possibly a few flurries
in the morning). There will be some pretty good west wind today, especially over
open and exposed areas but it will be quite wet and cool. Some gusty west to
northwest wind will also occur on Saturday. Another series of storms next week
will bring more rain and higher elevation snow to the area at times along with
windy periods.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Skrbac

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely with just
                    a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
Max temperature.....44-47.
Min humidity........75-80 percent.
20-foot winds.......West 10 to 15 mph gusts up to 20 mph this
                    morning...then west to northwest 15 to 20 mph
                    this afternoon with gusts around 30 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 20 to 25 mph becoming northwest after 1100L
                    with gusts around 35 mph.
LAL.................2.
Chc of wetting rain.90 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 until 1100L then increasing to
                    20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the evening. Chance of snow in the late
                    evening and early morning, then slight chance
                    of snow early in the morning.
Min temperature.....30-33.
Max humidity........90-100 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 12 to 11 mph in the evening becoming
                    downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 20 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.10 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3000 early in the evening then decreasing to around
                    1000-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain and snow in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........37-40 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming west 10 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 18 to 23 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy and windy. Scattered showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 12 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Cooler and windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, snow showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid
40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Skrbac
Requested by...Scott Brownlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1715071.17/RIW
.EMAIL Polecreek2017@gmail.com


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