Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 191214
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR COTTONWOOD II...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
614 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A STORMY NIGHT...WHERE THE FIRE SITE RECEIVED OVER A HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN...A DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY LIGHT...TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. MIXING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BARELY REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY...DESPITE THE VERY
LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRANSPORT WIND DIRECTION
ON SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN WYOMING LATE SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OCCURRING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT A WETTING RAIN.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM...OTHERWISE
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD (81400 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AROUND 7 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    BY 9 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    BY 9 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH BY 10 AM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHEAST 4-7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
                    VARIABLE 4-8 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....SMALL WINDOW OF LOW FAIR BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE EVENING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...RICK LANCASTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140919.COTTO.01/RIW






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