Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 211031
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOSHONE LAKE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
431 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON A 6 AM FORECAST TIME ON JULY 21 2016.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING A LID ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THIS
EVENING. QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 13 MPH
WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH. A FEW RELATIVELY
LOW PRECIPITATION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT GUSTY ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES 30 TO 40 MPH.

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERMEATE THE AREA WHILE A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
LOW CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME
FRIDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
AND FRIDAY...IT THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR LONGER
AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE KEEPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST
PART.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-50 PERCENT)LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST EARLY BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-58 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT BY MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY DRY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...BINNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160720.SHOSH.02/RIW


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