Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 150357
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Sylvan Bay Piles...USFS BTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
857 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be over the burn into early afternoon
then the leading edge of a Pacific storm system will move in bringing
an increased chance of snow from late afternoon through Thursday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...C.Baker

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) in the
                    afternoon. Chance of snow in the afternoon after
                    3 pm mst.
Max temperature.....35-38.
Min humidity........41-44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southeast around 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor becoming fair by 1 pm mst.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of snow early in
                    the evening, then snow likely in the late
                    evening and early morning. Snow early in the
                    morning.
Min temperature.....26-29.
Max humidity........82-85 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph. Gusts up to 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Ridge top winds.....South around 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.35 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Periods of snow.
Max temperature.....Around 37.
Min humidity........68-71 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.80 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1100-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 19 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 28 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor becoming fair in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Snow likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
upper 20s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 11. Highs in the upper 20s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow. Lows around 12. Highs
in the mid 30s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...C.Baker
Requested by...Dave Wilkins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718606.3/RIW
.EMAIL dawilkins@fs.fed.us



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