Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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598
FNUS75 KRIW 192004
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek...TIDC
National Weather Service Riverton WY
204 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoonal moisture will be increasing tonight and Thursday leading to a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. For the remainder of this afternoon
and evening, there is still a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm in the
area. The main threat from these would be strong outflow winds. Higher moisture levels
on Thursday will lead to not only a better chance of storms but also higher min rh`s.
The atmosphere will dry out Friday and Saturday with a couple dry days expected.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Skrbac

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) with a slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........25-28 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 15 mph
                    increasing to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West around 15 mph.
LAL.................2.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) in the evening then
                    becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms and isolated rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Min temperature.....53-56.
Max humidity........70-75 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 8 to 10 mph and gusty early in the
                    evening becoming downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................2.
Chc of wetting rain.5 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL until 2400, then 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph decreasing to 4-8 mph after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good decreasing to poor after midnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy (50-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms and isolated rain showers in the
                    morning, then scattered rain showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....74-77.
Min humidity........37-40 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming west around
                    12 mph with higher gusts late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph increasing to west 20 to
                    25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................2...becoming 3 after 1200L.
Chc of wetting rain.10 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL until 1200, then 9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    20 to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the evening. Lows in the lower 50s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Skrbac
Requested by...Maier
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713005.0/RIW
.EMAIL grte_dispatch@nps.gov



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