Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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106
FNUS75 KRIW 242016
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HATCHERY FIRE...BLM WOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
216 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1401 MDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
A HAINES INDEX OF 5 OR 6 FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285 INCLUDING THE FIRE
AREA...

.DISCUSSION...DRY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FIRE AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT WEAK EAST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WILL ERODE RAPIDLY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
AND VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM NOON TO 3 PM
MDT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALLOWING SMOKE COLUMNS
TO RISE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. THE STRONG WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM MDT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (97300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55 TO 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........46-49 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING EAST 8 TO
                    12 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 15 TO
                    20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL IN THE EVENING THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 17 TO
                    22 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500-18200 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    BECOMING WEST AT 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (198000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160724.HATCH.01/RIW



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