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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191248
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
848 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this
afternoon or evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly
warming into mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 848 AM Friday...
No changes to previous forecast necessary.

As of 651 AM Friday...

Previous forecast on track.

As of 223 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Wet with near normal temperatures today.
 * Showers and storms arrive from the west this morning.
 * Some storms may become severe mainly south this afternoon.
 * Cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding mainly south.

At the surface, a low pressure center moves northeast across OH,
and an extending cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley
first this in the morning. At the mid-upper levels, a shortwave
in a semi-zonal flow, moves across the aforementioned system,
providing upper level support. The environment shows strong
moisture advection under deep southwest flow, with PWATs
increasing near 1.5 inches, CAPE around 1,800 J/Kg, and deep
layer shear about 30 to 40 knots. These ingredients could
support scattered showers and few thunderstorms ahead of the
front today. Guidance suggests up to half an inch of QPF is
expected across the area. Although ingredients look marginal for
severe, thunderstorms may become particularly strong across the
southeast portions of the area where SPC maintains a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms. Although not widespread flooding
is expected, cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash
flooding with the heavier storms, mainly across the southern
portions of WV and southwest VA into this afternoon.

Showers will persist along the mountains tonight before exiting east
of the Appalachians before midnight. Meanwhile, clearing will spread
from west to east behind the front across the lowlands, reaching the
mountains after midnight. This could produce areas of dense fog over
areas that received rain overnight tonight.

Gusty southwest winds shift northwest behind the front, bringing
much fresh air. Expect near normal afternoon temperatures with highs
around 70 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s
higher elevations. Near normal lows for tonight, generally in the
mid to lower 40s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst
Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest
undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may
yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some
more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern
stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime
highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid
a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A
cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a
third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability
looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional
frost potential for Thursday morning.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 651 AM Friday...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers arriving to NE KY and SE OH
early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR
conditions are expected under light rain falling from an upper
cloud deck during the morning hours. However, embedded thunderstorms
could produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions into this
afternoon. Coded VCTS per uncertainty whether storms will hit
directly a terminal or not. Additional amendments will be
required.

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a gusty
wind shift from southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW
around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and BKW by 20Z.

Ceilings will become MVFR along the higher terrain and behind
FROPA, perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and
even clearing may spread from west to east behind the FROPA
with widespread VFR conditions prevailing across the western
terminals this afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ