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000
FXUS61 KRLX 171756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight in the midst
of a passing cold front. Another round of showers and storms
Friday morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Active weather is quickly getting underway upstream to our west
along a cold front. Mesoanalysis shows a ribbon of strong
instability where convective initiation is transpiring at the
time of writing, along the Ohio and Indiana state lines. Daytime
heating once again contributes to convective development, where
temps in the 70s/80s, coupled with dewpoints in the low 60s,
will allow for blossoming convection that may advertise strong
to severe conditions through this evening.

Storms will progress in an east-northeast fashion through the
course of the afternoon into tonight, approaching our
northwestern zones shortly after 5 PM, then grazing the northern
flank of the forecast area this evening as the front charges
eastward.

A Tornado Watch was hoisted up for parts of the Ohio
Valley at the time of writing amid this swath of favorable low
level shear and instability. This will certainly be something
to monitor downstream for our area later on this afternoon in
the event convective trends exude a similar environment,
especially as peeks of sunshine slip through the stratus field,
per satellite imagery. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
the biggest concerns as storms travel into the Ohio River
Valley. One thing that is different from yesterday`s convection
is that the shear component is noted today, imposing the tornado
risk alongside the aforementioned hazards. Localized hydro
concerns may also be present within heavier downpours.

The front is slated to cross through late tonight into early
Thursday morning, with precipitation wrapping up along the
mountains around dawn. A drier day is on tap for Thursday in
response to brief ridging aloft. Temperatures remain above
normal for this time of year, but will fall a few degrees short
of both yesterday`s and today`s highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Mid-level heights rise Thursday in response to transient shortwave
ridging moving east with well above normal temperature values
values for mid April - highs across the lower elevations in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Subsidence with this feature will keep
skies mainly clear with a precipitation free forecast.

Surface low pressure transiting north of the Upper Great Lakes will
yield cold frontal passage early Friday morning into the day Friday.
There is some question to the amount of instability available with
early morning frontal passage - could see some strong to possibly
severe early morning storms with around 35KTs of effective layer
shear if it comes in on the higher end of the spectrum.

The cold front exits east Friday night with any lingering
precipitation becoming confined to the mountains by early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

The weekend looks to be on the cooler side, but mostly dry, as
the area will be under the influence of high pressure post
FROPA. Weekend high temperatures will be in the high 50s and 60s
across the lowlands, with the mountains staying down in the 40s
to the low 60s. Dry weather will be in place Saturday until
Sunday morning, where a slight chance of showers and storms are
possible across the southwestern VA and eastern WV mountains.
Patchy frost looks possible Sunday night, especially across the
northern WV lowlands/mountains and across southeast OH.

Next week looks to show a gradual warming trend with a system
affecting the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Unsettled weather continues today in the midst of an encroaching
disturbance from the west. Strong to severe thunderstorms at the
time of writing were beginning to blossom along a cold front
around Indiana/Ohio and are progged to shift eastward as the day
progresses. In similar fashion to yesterday, storms will be
capable of producing visibility reductions, strong wind gusts,
hail, and tornadoes. VCTS was included at all sites through late
tonight ahead of the frontal passage, with the best potential
for severe weather slated across our northern terminals.

The front will press through the forecast area late tonight
through Thursday morning. Ceilings are anticipated to remain in
VFR through the course of FROPA, and lifting above 100 kft AGL
in its wake on Thursday. Dry weather returns after 12Z Thursday
through the remainder of the valid TAF period.

LLWS and turbulence is possible in the area ahead of and along
the front today into tonight. Surface wind gusts remain breezy
to strong this afternoon in the midst of a tightened pressure
gradient, with strong winds aloft as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK