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000
FNUS71 KRNK 241103
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Staunton River SP unit 39_65...Virginia State Parks
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
703 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The first of two weak boundaries was in the process of crossing
the forecast area from NW to SE this morning. Radar imagery
showed light precipitation echoes, but some of this was not
reaching the ground due to a dry sublayer. A secondary boundary
moves through shortly behind this one, and should deliver some
light showers to the western mountains as well. Chances for
wetting rain outside of the western mountains are low, and this
drier pattern continues through Saturday at least. Main mid/upper
level support will remain to our north, and showers should fall
apart as they move south, largely coming to an end by mid morning.

Skies begin to clear out late morning and we should see
temperatures reach the low 70s at the burn site. Westerly winds
will generally be around 5 to 15 mph. Winds will become calm this
evening.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 10 percent late in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (74500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 92 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  83  81  80  78  54  30  27  27  29
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  30  20  20  20  10  10  0   0
Temp............53  57  61  65  66  68  70  71  72  72
RH..............73  68  60  56  54  51  48  44  40  39
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.2 7.0 7.4
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..7   7   7   8   9   10  12  13  13  12
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............5   11  17  24  31  40  66  84  92  90
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   8   13  21  29  44  57  76  86  85

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 9 mph shifting to the north 6 to 9
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........27     34     16     17     15     10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............71     65     59     54     51     50
RH..............39     50     61     69     72     76
20 ft wind......W 6    NW 5   NW 4   N 4    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.7      6      5      6      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   400    400    400    400    400
Mixing wind......W 9    W 3    W 3    NW 6   N 8    N 8
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.............50     2      2      3      4      4
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.43     1      1      2      3      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 7 to 16 mph decreasing to around 6
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (36300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 52 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     27     42     41     34     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............47     50     57     62     66     68
RH..............83     78     61     51     44     40
20 ft wind......N 6    NE 6   NE 6   NE 6   NE 5   NE 5
20 ft wind gust.7      13     12     11     8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1500   2700   4000   5200   5500
Mixing wind......N 12   NE 16  NE 13  NE 9   NE 8   NE 6
LVORI...........5      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............5      31     44     45     52     41
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.6      24     35     38     42     33

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Resource Specialist
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412149.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL reed.stanley@dcr.virginia.gov